This study analyses the future goals of population development in Shanghai from the viewpoint of population carrying capacity and ecological footprint. The population carrying capacity is one of the fundamental factors researchers and policy-makers need to take into account in managing and planning the development of a country or a region. This study focuses on the case of Shanghai, based on previous ecological footprint analysis, and builds a comprehensive index evaluation model. By applying basic principles of multi-goal decision-making analysis and operating methods of system dynamics, it calculates population carrying capacity corresponding to different standards that resource-economic factors can support. It further explores issues related to population change in the metropolis and relevant policy measures.

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