China is still in the growth period of population urbanization; meanwhile, it is a large agricultural country where high-quality agricultural development requires a high agro-ecological efficiency level. Based on panel data from 31 provinces and cities in China from 2001 to 2020, the paper constructs an agricultural eco-efficiency evaluation index system that is more in line with China’s current agricultural production situation. Meanwhile, the undesired output super-efficiency SBM model is used to measure it. Combining the PVAR and panel Tobit models, the paper explores the effect of population urbanization on agro-ecological efficiency and the interaction mechanism in China. The results show that: (1) In the whole of China, and the western region of China in particular, agro-ecological efficiency tended to decrease during the research time, and ended up at an inefficient level. In the eastern and northeastern regions, agro-ecological efficiency has been at a moderate level for a long time, while in the central region it has fluctuated more and is now at a low level of efficiency. (2) Increases and decreases in population urbanization have both had a significant negative impact on agro-ecological efficiency, but the economic development and improved transportation infrastructure brought by population urbanization have had a positive impact on agro-ecological efficiency. (3) The paper’s results provide the current agro-ecological efficiency situation in each province of China, and clarify the causal effect of population urbanization on agro-ecological efficiency, which can provide a reference basis for subsequent policy formulation and for further research to be carried out.

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Abstract

The economic and social structures of Chinese cities are constantly transforming in recent years. The coordinated development of economic, social, and ecological environment is an important path to achieving the construction of high-quality development. Taking Guangdong Province, the largest economic province in China, as an example, the evaluation index systems of economic development system (ED), social development system (SD), and ecological environment system (EE) are constructed, respectively. The entropy weight method and comprehensive evaluation method are applied to measure the evaluation indexes of economic, social, and ecological environment levels of each city in Guangdong Province from 2010 to 2020. The coupled coordination model is used to measure the spatial and temporal evolution of the coupled ED-SD-EE coordination of Guangdong cities and explore the impact of the epidemic on the coupling coordination degree. The results concluded that (i) the economic, social, and ecological environment of each city in Guangdong Province will be more harmonious from 2010 to 2020. ED-SD-EE coupling coordination of Guangdong cities shows a “rising and then declining” trend, but it is still in a “high coupling-low coordination” development state. (ii) The lagging development of the coupled ED-SD-EE system in Guangdong cities is mainly the ecological environment system. (iii) Epidemic harms the coupling and coordination of Guangdong cities, with the most negative effect on the coordination development of the EE. The paper findings clarify the current state of ED-SD-EE coupling and coordination in Guangdong cities, with a view to providing a reference basis for policy formulation and research on quality urban development.

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