The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a indicator used by Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) which describes the average change in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services in a certain period. The case on Consumer Price Index (CPI) of Probolinggo City, if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase then describe inflation occurs and conversely. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) of Probolinggo City increase is not fixed. This study is to forecast the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that the results can be used as one of the considerations in carrying out economic development in the future. Research focused on the data of Consumer Price Index (CPI) of Probolinggo City from January 2014 to April 2022. Methodology implemented in this study is Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Result show that ARIMA without an outlier was the best model for predicting Consumer Price Index (CPI) of Probolinggo City for the next 8 months. This model shows the value of MAPE is . The value of forecasting results in each month has decreased and increased not so significantly where in May 2022 the forecasting value was 108,391 then in June 2022 the forecasting value became 108,411 and so on until December 2022 the forecasting results using ARIMA model of 107,845.
The strategic role of the Bali Strait as a connection between the islands of Java and Bali is growing in line with the increase in the economy and tourism of the two islands. Therefore, it is necessary to have a further understanding of the condition of the waters in the Bali strait, one of which is ocean currents. This study aims to predict future ocean currents based on 30-minute data in the Bali Strait in the range of 16 May 2021 to 9 June 2021 obtained from the Perak II Surabaya Maritime Meteorological Station. In this study, the Long Short Term Memory method was used. The parameters used are hidden layer, batch size, and learn rate drop. Based on the parameters used, the results showed that the smallest MAPE value was 18.64% for U ocean current velocity data and 5.29% for V ocean current velocity data.
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