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The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate-ecological-social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.

Introduction 3 Background 7 Scientific objectives 9 Principal results 20 Expedition synthesis 25 Preliminary scientific assessment 27 References

In the Arabian Sea, South Asian monsoon (SAM)-induced high surface water productivity coupled with poor ventilation of intermediate water results in strong denitrification within the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). Despite the significance of denitrification in the Arabian Sea, we have no long-term record of its evolution spanning the past several million years. Here, we present the first record of denitrification evolution since Late Miocene (~10.2 Ma) in the Eastern Arabian Sea, where the SAM generates moderate surface water productivity, based on the samples retrieved during the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 355. We find that (i) the SAM was persistently weaker from ~10.2 to 3.1 Ma; it did not intensify at ~8 Ma in contrast to a few previous studies, (ii) on tectonic timescale, both the SAM and the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) varied synchronously, (iii) the first evidence of denitrification and productivity/SAM intensification was at ~3.2–2.8 Ma that coincided with Mid-Pliocene Warm Period (MPWP), and (iv) the modern strength of the OMZ where denitrification is a permanent feature was attained at ~1.0 Ma.