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Climate change and urbanization can increase pressures on groundwater resources, but little is known about how groundwater quality will change. Here, we use a global synthesis (n = 9,404) to reveal the drivers of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which is an important component of water chemistry and substrate for microorganisms that control biogeochemical reactions. Dissolved inorganic chemistry, local climate and land use explained~31% of observed variability in groundwater DOC, whilst aquifer age explained an additional 16%. We identify a 19% increase in DOC associated with urban land cover. We predict major groundwater DOC increases following changes in precipitation and temperature in key areas relying on groundwater. Climate change and conversion of natural or agricultural areas to urban areas will decrease groundwater quality and increase water treatment costs, compounding existing constraints on groundwater resources.

Groundwater comprises 95% of the liquid fresh water on Earth and contains a diverse mix of dissolved organic matter (DOM) molecules which play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. Currently, the storage times and degradation pathways of groundwater DOM are unclear, preventing an accurate estimate of groundwater carbon sources and sinks for global carbon budgets. Here we reveal the transformations of DOM in aging groundwater using ultra-high resolution mass spectrometry combined with radiocarbon dating. Long-term anoxia and a lack of photodegradation leads to the removal of oxidised DOM and a build-up of both reduced photodegradable formulae and aerobically biolabile formulae with a strong microbial signal. This contrasts with the degradation pathway of DOM in oxic marine, river, and lake systems. Our findings suggest that processes such as groundwater extraction and subterranean groundwater discharge to oceans could result in up to 13 Tg of highly photolabile and aerobically biolabile groundwater dissolved organic carbon released to surface environments per year, where it can be rapidly degraded. These findings highlight the importance of considering groundwater DOM in global carbon budgets.