There is widespread concern, particularly in Europe, about the possibility of a secular decline in profits and rates of return. The purpose of this study is to assess whether there has been a decline and to quantify it as far as possible, taking measurement problems into account. It also considers summarily the significance of observed trends and the reasons for them. Profits are generally seen as an essential feature of market economies. When they are low, it is feared that enterprise and innovation will falter and the rate of investment decline, leading to sluggish growth in output and capacity. Low growth may also lead to low profits. The precise links between profits and economic performance are, however, theoretically complicated and difficult to establish empirically. This is because both economic and accounting definitions of profit cover heterogeneous phenomena and are calculated as a residual. Conceptual and measurement issues are important in assessing the evolution of ...

This paper describes work on the determination of primary commodity prices in world spot markets and in trade. Reduced-form equations for four product group price indices are estimated as functions of OECD activity, world prices, interest rates, exchange rates, oil prices, and other variables. The equations are tested for stability on their own and within the OECD INTERLINK system. The effect of exogenous shocks upon primary commodity prices is studied as well as the effect of commodity price changes upon OECD inflation and activity. The commodity price equations enter in the INTERLINK system through export unit value equations, the estimation of which is described in the paper ... Cet article décrit les travaux entrepris sur la détermination des prix des produits de base sur les marchés mondiaux au comptant. Pour quatre groupes de produits on a estimé des formes réduites des indices de prix sous forme de fonctions de l'activité de l'OCDE, des prix mondiaux, des taux d'intérêt, des prix du pétrole, des taux de change et d'autres variables. Ces équations sont testées pour leur stabilité et sont aussi testées à l'intérieur du système INTERLINK de l'OCDE. On étudie les effets de chocs introduits via les variables exogènes sur les prix des produits de base ainsi que la transmission des variations de prix des produits de base sur l'activité et les prix à l'intérieur de la zone OCDE. Les équations de prix des produits de base sont introduites dans le système INTERLINK par le biais des équations des valeurs unitaires des exportations dont l'estimation est décrite dans cette étude ...