Slip on a subduction megathrust can be seismic or aseismic, with the two modes of slip complementing each other in time and space to accommodate the long-term plate motions. Although slip is almost purely aseismic at depths greater than about 40 km, heterogeneous surface strain suggests that both modes of slip occur at shallower depths, with aseismic slip resulting from steady or transient creep in the interseismic and postseismic periods. Thus, active faults seem to comprise areas that slip mostly during earthquakes, and areas that mostly slip aseismically. The size, location and frequency of earthquakes that a megathrust can generate thus depend on where and when aseismic creep is taking place, and what fraction of the long-term slip rate it accounts for. Here we address this issue by focusing on the central Peru megathrust. We show that the Pisco earthquake, with moment magnitude M(w) = 8.0, ruptured two asperities within a patch that had remained locked in the interseismic period, and triggered aseismic frictional afterslip on two adjacent patches. The most prominent patch of afterslip coincides with the subducting Nazca ridge, an area also characterized by low interseismic coupling, which seems to have repeatedly acted as a barrier to seismic rupture propagation in the past. The seismogenic portion of the megathrust thus appears to be composed of interfingering rate-weakening and rate-strengthening patches. The rate-strengthening patches contribute to a high proportion of aseismic slip, and determine the extent and frequency of large interplate earthquakes. Aseismic slip accounts for as much as 50-70% of the slip budget on the seismogenic portion of the megathrust in central Peru, and the return period of earthquakes with M(w) = 8.0 in the Pisco area is estimated to be 250 years.

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We use about two decades of geodetic measurements to characterize interseismic strain build up along the Central Andes subduction zone from Lima, Peru, to Antofagasta, Chile. These measurements are modeled assuming a 3‐plate model (Nazca, Andean sliver and South America Craton) and spatially varying interseismic coupling (ISC) on the Nazca megathrust interface. We also determine slip models of the 1996 Mw = 7.7 Nazca, the 2001 Mw = 8.4 Arequipa, the 2007 Mw = 8.0 Pisco and the Mw = 7.7 Tocopilla earthquakes. We find that the data require a highly heterogeneous ISC pattern and that, overall, areas with large seismic slip coincide with areas which remain locked in the interseismic period (with high ISC). Offshore Lima where the ISC is high, a Mw∼8.6–8.8 earthquake occurred in 1746. This area ruptured again in a sequence of four Mw∼8.0 earthquakes in 1940, 1966, 1974 and 2007 but these events released only a small fraction of the elastic strain which has built up since 1746 so that enough elastic strain might be available there to generate a Mw > 8.5 earthquake. The region where the Nazca ridge subducts appears to be mostly creeping aseismically in the interseismic period (low ISC) and seems to act as a permanent barrier as no large earthquake ruptured through it in the last 500 years. In southern Peru, ISC is relatively high and the deficit of moment accumulated since the Mw∼8.8 earthquake of 1868 is equivalent to a magnitude Mw∼8.4 earthquake. Two asperities separated by a subtle aseismic creeping patch are revealed there. This aseismic patch may arrest some rupture as happened during the 2001 Arequipa earthquake, but the larger earthquakes of 1604 and 1868 were able to rupture through it. In northern Chile, ISC is very high and the rupture of the 2007 Tocopilla earthquake has released only 4% of the elastic strain that has accumulated since 1877. The deficit of moment which has accumulated there is equivalent to a magnitude Mw∼8.7 earthquake. This study thus provides elements to assess the location, size and magnitude of future large megathurst earthquakes in the Central Andes subduction zone. Caveats of this study are that interseismic strain of the forearc is assumed time invariant and entirely elastic. Also a major source of uncertainty is due to fact that the available data place very little constraints on interseismic coupling at shallow depth near the trench, except offshore Lima where sea bottom geodetic measurements have been collected suggesting strong coupling.

The Central Andes of southern Peru, Bolivia, Argentina and Chile (between 12 • S and 42 • S) comprise the largest orogenic plateau in the world associated with abundant arc volcanism, the Central Andean Plateau, as well as multiple segments of flat-slab subduction making this part of the Earth a unique place to study various aspects of active plate tectonics. The goal of this continental-scale ambient noise tomography study is to incorporate broad-band seismic data from 20 seismic networks deployed incrementally in the Central Andes from 1994 May to 2012 August, to image the vertically polarized shear wave velocity (V sv) structure of the South American Cordillera. Using dispersion measurements calculated from the cross-correlation of 330 broad-band seismic stations, we construct Rayleigh wave phase velocity maps in the period range of 8-40 s and invert these for the shear wave velocity (V sv) structure of the Andean crust. We provide a dispersion misfit map as well as uncertainty envelopes for our V sv model and observe striking first-order correlations with our shallow results (∼5 km) and the morphotectonic provinces as well as subtler geological features indicating our results are robust. Our results reveal for the first time the full extent of the mid-crustal Andean lowvelocity zone that we tentatively interpret as the signature of a very large volume Neogene batholith. This study demonstrates the efficacy of integrating seismic data from numerous regional broad-band seismic networks to approximate the high-resolution coverage previously only available though larger networks such as the EarthScope USArray Transportable Array in the United States.

Two arrays of broad-band seismic stations were deployed in the north central Andes between 8 • and 21 • S, the CAUGHT array over the normally subducting slab in northwestern Bolivia and southern Peru, and the PULSE array over the southern part of the Peruvian flat slab where the Nazca Ridge is subducting under South America. We apply finite frequency teleseismic P-and S-wave tomography to data from these arrays to investigate the subducting Nazca plate and the surrounding mantle in this region where the subduction angle changes from flat north of 14 • S to normally dipping in the south. We present new constraints on the location and geometry of the Nazca slab under southern Peru and northwestern Bolivia from 95 to 660 km depth. Our tomographic images show that the Peruvian flat slab extends further inland than previously proposed along the projection of the Nazca Ridge. Once the slab re-steepens inboard of the flat slab region, the Nazca slab dips very steeply (∼70 • ) from about 150 km depth to 410 km depth. Below this the slab thickens and deforms in the mantle transition zone. We tentatively propose a ridge-parallel slab tear along the north edge of the Nazca Ridge between 130 and 350 km depth based on the offset between the slab anomaly north of the ridge and the location of the re-steepened Nazca slab inboard of the flat slab region, although additional work is needed to confirm the existence of this feature. The subslab mantle directly below the inboard projection of the Nazca Ridge is characterized by a prominent low-velocity anomaly. South of the Peruvian flat slab, fast anomalies are imaged in an area confined to the Eastern Cordillera and bounded to the east by well-resolved low-velocity anomalies. These low-velocity anomalies at depths greater than 100 km suggest that thick mantle lithosphere associated with underthrusting of cratonic crust from the east is not present. In northwestern Bolivia a vertically elongated fast anomaly under the Subandean Zone is interpreted as a block of delaminating lithosphere.