Central America is a unique climate region in the world, due to its location and shape, as well as the many large and local scale climate processes that influence its variability and change at a large range of spatial and time scales. Observed temperature trends have been increasing significantly and they are expected to increase even more in the future, potentially increasing aridity. Managers should make an informed decision on whether a sophisticated modeling approach is best for your region, or simpler approaches are available for determining shorter term planning. Always ask and question the uncertainty of information that is presented. Use this modeling information as a dynamic and constantly changing effort, as future evolves new analysis would need to be performed as models and data become more accurate.

<p>Tropical cyclones are one of the most important causes of disasters in Central America. Using historical (1970–2010) tracks of cyclones in the Caribbean and Pacific basin, we identify critical path locations where these low-pressure systems cause the highest number of floods in a set of 88 precipitation stations in the region. Results show that tropical cyclones from the Caribbean and Pacific basin produce a large number of indirect impacts on the Pacific slope of the Central American isthmus. Although the direct impact of a tropical cyclone usually results in devastation in the affected region, the indirect effects are more common and sometimes equally severe. In fact, the storm does not need to be an intense hurricane to cause considerable impacts and damage. The location of even a lower intensity storm in critical positions of the oceanic basin can result in destructive indirect impacts in Central America. The identification of critical positions can be used for emergency agencies in the region to issue alerts of possible flooding and catastrophic events.</p>