Predictive species distribution models are mostly based on statistical dependence between environmental and distributional data and therefore may fail to account for physiological limits and biological interactions that are fundamental when modelling species distributions under future climate conditions. Here, we developed a state-of-the-art method integrating biological theory with survey and experimental data in a way that allows us to explicitly model both physical tolerance limits of species and inherent natural variability in regional conditions and thereby improve the reliability of species distribution predictions under future climate conditions. By using a macroalga-herbivore association (Fucus vesiculosus - Idotea balthica) as a case study, we illustrated how salinity reduction and temperature increase under future climate conditions may significantly reduce the occurrence and biomass of these important coastal species. Moreover, we showed that the reduction of herbivore occurrence is linked to reduction of their host macroalgae. Spatial predictive modelling and experimental biology have been traditionally seen as separate fields but stronger interlinkages between these disciplines can improve species distribution projections under climate change. Experiments enable qualitative prior knowledge to be defined and identify cause-effect relationships, and thereby better foresee alterations in ecosystem structure and functioning under future climate conditions that are not necessarily seen in projections based on non-causal statistical relationships alone.

The escalating spread of invasive species increases the risk of disrupting the pathways of energy flow through native ecosystems, modify the relative importance of resource (‘bottom-up’) and consumer (‘top-down’) control in food webs and thereby govern biomass production at different trophic levels. The current lack of understanding of interaction cascades triggered by non-indigenous species underscores the need for more basic exploratory research to assess the degree to which novel species regulate bottom-up and/or top down control. Novel predators are expected to produce the strongest effects by decimating consumers, and leading to the blooms of primary producers. Here we show how the arrival of the invasive crab Rhithropanopeus harrisii into the Baltic Sea – a bottom-up controlled ecosystem where no equivalent predators ever existed – appeared to trigger not only strong top-down control resulting in a decline in richness and biomass of benthic invertebrates, but also an increase in pelagic nutrients and phytoplankton biomass. Thus, the addition of a novel interaction – crab predation – to an ecosystem has a potential to reduce the relative importance of bottom-up regulation, relax benthic-pelagic coupling and reallocate large amounts of nutrients from benthic to pelagic processes, resulting in a regime shift to a degraded ecosystem state.