We study the microeconomic implications of robot adoption using a rich panel data-set of Spanish manufacturing firms over a 27-year period (1990-2016). We provide causal evidence on two central questions: (1) Which firm characteristics prompt firms to adopt robots? (2) What is the impact of robots on adopting firms relative to non-adopting firms? To address these questions, we look at our data through the lens of recent attempts in the literature to formalize the implications of robot technology. As for the first question, we establish robust evidence for positive selection, i.e., ex-ante better performing firms (measured through output and labour productivity) are more likely to adopt robots. On the other hand, conditional on size, ex-ante more skill-intensive firms are less likely to do so. As for the second question, we find that robot adoption generates substantial output gains in the vicinity of 20-25% within four years, reduces the labour cost share by 5-7%-points, and leads to net job creation at a rate of 10%. These results are robust to controlling for non-random selection into robot adoption through a difference-in-differences approach combined with a propensity score reweighting estimator. To further validate these results, we also offer structural estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) where robot technology enters the (endogenous) productivity process of firms. The results demonstrate a positive causal effect of robots on productivity, as well as a complementarity between robots and exporting in boosting productivity.

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Клочко Ольга Александровна-к.э.н., доцент факультета мировой экономики и мировой политики Национального исследовательского университета «Высшая школа экономики».

This paper is devoted to the influence of standardization on emergence and development of global value chains (GVC). Nowadays trade in value added is the subject for heated debates. However, the role of standardization (in particular, international standardization) is highly underestimated. The study examines the history of the development of different types of standards, comparing different approaches to modeling the processes of standardization and develops recommendations for the economic policy of Russia on the basis of its present position in the GVC. At the moment, we can say unambiguously that standardization leads to the shift of firms from upstream stages of production to the field of design and marketing, where a greater chance to realize competitive advantages exists (downstream stages). For Russia, it means continuous improvement in the following areas: the development of large and small businesses in sectors that are not related to the energy, encouraging companies to establish supply chains and value chains, customer orientated businesses. In addition to the positive effects of standardization, the article also reviews some negative shocks. They occur when the standards are being introduced to small firms, or when accepted standards are not harmonized in accordance with international standards, or when there are no resources for modernization within the global value chain, or when there are no opportunities to move into new markets where standardization is lower, or when different standards are set to reach controversial objectives. Nevertheless, in all these cases, there are certain conditions which implementation will make standardization the most effective. These include, for example, a balance between the amount of the factor used in the production and the complexity of the technology. This condition is explained here both mathematically and by the example of the Chinese national program for certification of organic products. Thus, the importance of international standardization for the development of global value chains cannot be overstated, despite possible negative effects. That is why Russia should be actively involved in all of these processes in order to stimulate economic growth.

* Исследование осуществлено в рамках Программы индивидуальных исследований факультета мировой экономики и мировой политики НИУ ВШЭ в 2016 году.