No abstract

Existing approaches to the creation of hydrodynamic model based on a single implementation of the geological model, lead to difficulties in adaptation – there is a need for additional artificial adjustments of the initial data, and, as a consequence, inaccurate assessment of the projected technological parameters of the development. In order to make balanced investment decisions on the development of deposits, it is necessary to take a comprehensive approach to the assessment of possible uncertainties. To solve this problem, the iterative modeling approach is used, which provides a comprehensive assessment of possible variants of geological and technological models and allows you to vary the parameters of the model to assess uncertainty and risks in the calculation process. The article describes the process of creating and selecting the most likely implementation of the geological model of the PK1 formation, providing the best adaptation to the history of development and minimal uncertainty in the prediction of technological parameters for the medium and long term. Implementations of the model include variations of the seismic base, distribution of the lithology parameter, filtration-capacitance properties of non-collectors, the volume of the aquifer and its activity. In the process of work at the first stage, the basic implementation of the geological model was created, at the second stage of them on the basis of the developed complex parameter characterizing the degree of adaptation of the hydrodynamic model, the most probable was chosen.