Background Bibliometric and Altmetric analyses provide different perspectives regarding research impact. This study aimed to determine whether Altmetric score was associated with citation rate independent of established bibliometrics. Methods Citations related to a previous cohort of 100 most cited articles in surgery were collected and a 3-year interval citation gain calculated. Citation count, citation rate index, Altmetric score, 5-year impact factor, and Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine levels were used to estimate citation rate prospect. Results The median interval citation gain was 161 (i.q.r. 83–281); 74 and 62 articles had an increase in citation rate index (median increase 2.8 (i.q.r. –0.1 to 7.7)) and Altmetric score (median increase 3 (0–4)) respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed that citation rate index (area under the curve (AUC) 0.86, 95 per cent c.i. 0.79 to 0.93; P < 0.001) and Altmetric score (AUC 0.65, 0.55 to 0.76; P = 0.008) were associated with higher interval citation gain. An Altmetric score critical threshold of 2 or more was associated with a better interval citation gain when dichotomized at the interval citation gain median (odds ratio (OR) 4.94, 95 per cent c.i. 1.99 to 12.26; P = 0.001) or upper quartile (OR 4.13, 1.60 to 10.66; P = 0.003). Multivariable analysis revealed only citation rate index to be independently associated with interval citation gain when dichotomized at the median (OR 18.22, 6.70 to 49.55; P < 0.001) or upper quartile (OR 19.30, 4.23 to 88.15; P < 0.001). Conclusion Citation rate index and Altmetric score appear to be important predictors of interval citation gain, and better at predicting future citations than the historical and established impact factor and Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine quality descriptors.

Background Bibliometric and Altmetric analyses provide important but alternative perspectives regarding research article impact. This study aimed to establish whether Altmetric Score (AS) was associated with citation rate, independent of bibliometrics. Method Citations for a previously reported cohort of 100 most cited articles associated with the keyword Surgery (2018, Powell et al), were collected and a three year interval Citation Gain (iCG) evaluated. Previous citation count, Citation Rate Index (CRI), AS, five year Impact Factor, and Oxford Centre for Evidence Based Medicine (OCEBM) levels were used to classify citation rate prospect. Results During follow-up, the median iCG was 161 (IQR 83 to 281), with 73 and 62 articles receiving an increase in CRI and AS, respectively. Median CRI and AS increase were 2.8 (−0.1 to 7.7) and 3 (0 to 4), respectively. Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed that CRI (AUC 0.86 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.93), p<0.001) and AS (Area Under Curve (AUC) 0.65 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.76), p=0.008) were associated with higher iCG. AS critical threshold greater than or equal to 2.0 was associated with better iCG when dichotomised at iCG median (OR=4.94, 95% CI 1.99 to 12.26, p=0.001) and iCG Upper Quartile (UQ, OR=4.13, 95% CI 1.60 to 10.66, p=0.003). Multivariable analysis identified that only CRI was independently associated with iCG when dichotomised at the median (OR 18.22, 95% CI 6.70 to 49.55, p<0.001) and UQ (OR 19.30, 95% CI 4.23 to 88.15, p<0.001). Conclusion Citation Rate Indices and Altmetric Scores are important predictors of interval Citation Gain, and better at predicting future citations than the historical and established Impact Factor and OCEBM quality of evidence descriptors.