We performed the first population-based study that determined the magnitude of the risk and identified the factors predictive of developing seizure disorders after cerebral infarction. Five hundred thirty-five consecutive persons without prior unprovoked seizures were followed from their first cerebral infarctions until death or migration out of Rochester, Minnesota. Thirty-three patients (6%) developed early seizures (within 1 week), 78% of which occurred within the first 24 hours after infarction. Using multivariate analysis, the only factor predictive of early seizure occurrence was anterior hemisphere location of infarct (odds ratio 4.0; 95% CI 1.2 to 13.7). Twenty-seven patients developed an initial late seizure (past 1 week), whereas 18 developed epilepsy (recurrent late seizures). Compared with the population in the community, the risk during the first year was 23 times higher for initial late seizures and 17 times higher for epilepsy. The cumulative probability of developing initial late seizures was 3.0% by 1 year, 4.7% by 2 years, 7.4% by 5 years, and 8.9% by 10 years. Independent predictive factors on multivariate analysis for initial late seizures were early seizure occurrence (hazard ratio of 7.8 [95% CI 2.8 to 21.7]) and stroke recurrence (3.1 [1.2 to 8.3]). Both early seizure occurrence (16.4 [5.5 to 49.2]) and stroke recurrence (3.5 [1.2 to 10.5]) independently predicted the development of epilepsy as well. We also found that early seizure occurrence predisposed those with initial late seizures to develop epilepsy.

We used the medical records linkage system for the population of Rochester, Minnesota, to identify persons in the community who had their first cerebral infarct without previous dementia. In this cohort (n = 971), the incidence of dementia in the first year was nine times greater than expected, but if we did not observe dementia in the first year, the risk of dementia in the cohort each year thereafter was about twice the risk in the population. After the first year, a 50% increase was observed in Alzheimer's disease in the cohort compared with that in the community. Although the incidence of dementia increased with increasing age, the standardized morbidity ratios decreased with increasing age. Age, sex (male), and second stroke were significant independent predictors of dementia in a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. There was no effect of location or clinical severity of infarct on the rate of occurrence of dementia.

We used the Kaplan-Meier product limit method to estimate rates and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis with bootstrap validation to model significant independent predictors of and temporal trends in survival and recurrent stroke among 1,111 residents of Rochester, MN, who had a first cerebral infarction from 1975 through 1989. The risk of death after first cerebral infarction was 7% +/- 0.7% at 7 days, 14% +/- 1.0% at 30 days, 27% +/- 1.3% at 1 year, and 53% +/- 1.5% at 5 years. Independent risk factors for death after first cerebral infarction were age (p< 0.0001), congestive heart failure (p < 0.0001), persistent atrial fibrillation (p < 0.0001), recurrent stroke (p < 0.0001), and ischemic heart disease (p < 0.0001 for age < or =70, p > 0.05 for age >70). The risk of recurrent stroke after first cerebral infarction was 2% +/- 0.4% at 7 days, 4% +/- 0.6% at 30 days, 12% +/- 1.1% at 1 year, and 29% +/- 1.7% at 5 years. Age (p = 0.0002) and diabetes mellitus (p = 0.0004) were the only significant independent predictors of recurrent stroke. Neither the year nor the quinquennium of the first cerebral infarction was a significant determinant of survival or recurrence. The temporal trend toward improving survival after first cerebral infarction documented in Rochester, MN, in the decades before 1975 has ended.

The likelihood of rupture of unruptured intracranial aneurysms that were less than 10 mm in diameter was exceedingly low among patients in group 1 and was substantially higher among those in group 2. The risk of morbidity and mortality related to surgery greatly exceeded the 7.5-year risk of rupture among patients in group 1 with unruptured intracranial aneurysms smaller than 10 mm in diameter.

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