Trade tensions, resource nationalism, and various other factors are increasing concerns regarding the supply reliability of nonfuel mineral commodities. This is especially the case for commodities required for new and emerging technologies ranging from electric vehicles to wind turbines. In this analysis, we use a conventional risk-modeling framework to develop and apply a new methodology for assessing the supply risk to the U.S. manufacturing sector. Specifically, supply risk is defined as the confluence of three factors: the likelihood of a foreign supply disruption, the dependency of U.S. manufacturers on foreign supplies, and the ability of U.S. manufacturers to withstand a supply disruption. The methodology is applied to 52 commodities for the decade spanning 2007-2016. The results indicate that a subset of 23 commodities, including cobalt, niobium, rare earth elements, and tungsten, pose the greatest supply risk. This supply risk is dynamic, shifting with changes in global market conditions.

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The quantity of ore mined and waste rock (i.e., overburden or barren rock) removed to produce a refined unit of a mineral commodity, its rock-to-metal ratio (RMR), is an important metric for understanding mine wastes and environmental burdens. In this analysis, we provide a comprehensive examination of RMRs for 25 commodities for 2018. The results indicate significant variability across commodities. Precious metals like gold have RMRs in the range of 10 5 –10 6 , while iron ore and aluminum are on the order of 10 1 . The results also indicate significant variability across operations for a single commodity. The interquartile range of RMRs for individual cobalt operations, for example, varies from 465 to 2157, with a global RMR of 859. RMR variability is mainly driven by ore grades and revenue contribution. The total attributable ore mined and waste rock removed in the production of these 25 commodities sums to 37.6 billion metric tons, 83% of which is attributable to iron ore, copper, and gold. RMRs provide an additional dimension for evaluating the impact of materials and material choice trade-offs. The results can enhance life cycle inventories and be extended to evaluate areas of surface disturbances, mine tailings, energy requirements, and associated greenhouse gas emissions.

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A U.S. Navy SEAL carries gear containing at least 23 nonfuel mineral commodities for which the United States is greater than 50 percent net import reliant. CONGO (KINSHASA) CHINA SOUTH AFRICA MEXICO M4 carbine Communications gear and global positioning system Night vision goggles