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This article analyses the effects of monetary policy decisions on inflation expectations of European consumers. Using a novel approach, I convert qualitative survey responses of consumers in various European countries into a quantitative time series of inflation expectations. I investigate the effects of unanticipated movements in interest rates and inflation on inflation expectations across European countries. I inter alia seek to explore whether the reaction differs of consumers in countries with more credible central banks than those in less credible countries.

This article introduces new leading indicators for fifteen industrialized countries which enable the business cycle in manufacturing to be forecast fairly reliably between 4 and 6 months ahead. These indicators are based on an improved variant of the NBER method, yielding a composite leading indicator characterized by less erratic movements and clear turning points.

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