Prompted by international concerns about school and postschool participation in mathematics, the authors of the present study sought to investigate factors predicting "switching on" and "switching off in mathematics, operationalized through measures of future intent and disengagement, respectively. They drew from Bronfenbrenner's ecological model to explore an educational ecology comprising student, home, classroom, school, and time factors in predicting future intent and disengagement. These models were conducted within a multilevel context, thereby also assessing variation at student, classroom, and school levels. Based on data from 1,601 Australian middle school students from 200 classrooms in 44 schools, variance components models showed the bulk of variance (> 85%) in future intent and disengagement resided at the student (and residual) level, with 10%-12% variance explained at classroom and school levels. Multilevel hierarchical regression analyses revealed that student, home, and classroom factors explained most variance in dependent measures. For future intent and disengagement, mathematics self-efficacy, valuing, enjoyment, perceived classroom enjoyment, and parent interest were significant predictors. For disengagement, additional predictors were mathematics anxiety, perceived classroom disengagement, school ethnic composition, and school socioeconomic status. Modeling indicated all predictive effects generalized across classrooms and schools. Findings hold implications for the breadth and depth of efforts in mathematics aimed at reducing disengagement, increasing participation, and promoting more positive future orientations through school and beyond.

This study of 1,601 students in the middle years of schooling (Grades 5-8, each student measured twice, 1 year apart) from 200 classrooms in 44 schools sought to identify factors explaining gains and declines in mathematics engagement at key transition points. In multilevel regression modeling, findings showed that compared with Grade 6 students (upper elementary; the reference category), students in Grades 7 (typically the first secondary school year) and 8 have significantly declined in mathematics engagement from their previous year. Notably, in further analyses, these declines were found to be related to student (particularly mathematics self-efficacy and valuing), home (parent valuing of mathematics and availability of a computer for mathematics), classroom (class-average achievement and perceived climate), and school (socio-economic status and ethnic composition) factors. Implications for research and practice are discussed.

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Abstract. The present study explored multilevel variance for a range of salient psycho-educational factors in mathematics. With a sample of 4,383 students (Years 5–8) in 257 classrooms and 47 schools, data indicated patterns of variance across the selection of psycho-educational factors. For all factors, the bulk of variance resided at the student (and residual) level. In ascending order of upper-level variance were motivation, perceived motivational ‘climate’, homework completion, teacher-student relationships, and achievement – with motivation and perceived ‘climate’ yielding very little upper-level variance. Hence, although there is usually a hierarchical structure in which psycho-educational factors are situated, there is variation in patterns of multilevel variance across the range of factors. In exploring a range of psycho-educational phenomena from a multilevel perspective, the present study offers further direction for researchers selecting and operationalizing psycho-educational phenomena in multilevel research. Implications for pedagogy, classroom climate, and separating teaching effects from teacher effects and schooling effects from school effects are also discussed.