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A morphodynamic model based on the wave-driven alongshore sediment transport, including cross-shore transport in a simplified way and neglecting tides, is presented and applied to the Zandniotor mega-nourishment on the Dutch Delfiand coast. The model is calibrated with the bathymetric data surveyed from January 2012 to March 2013 using measured offshore wave forcing. The calibrated model reproduces accurately the surveyed evolution of the shoreline and depth contours until March 2015. According to the long-term modeling using different wave climate scenarios based on historical data, for the next 30-yr period, the Zandmotor will display diffusive behavior, asymmetric feeding to the adjacent beaches, and slow Migration to the NE. Specifically, the Zandmotor amplitude will have decayed from 960 m to about 350 m with a scatter of only about 40 m associated to climate variability. The modeled coastline diffusivity during the 3-yr period is 0.0021 m(2)/s, close to the observed value of 0.0022 m(2)/s. In contrast, the coefficient of the classical one-line diffusion equation is 0.0052 m(2)/s. Thus, the lifetime prediction, here defined as the time needed to reduce the initial amplitude by a factor 5, would be 90 yr instead of the classical diffusivity prediction of 35 yr. The resulting asymmetric feeding to adjacent beaches prodtices 100 m seaward shift at the NE section and 80 m seaward shift at the SW section. Looking at the variability associated to the different wave climates, the migration rate and the slight shape asymmetry correlate with the wave power asymmetry (W vs N waves) while the coastline diffusivity correlates with the proportion of high-angle waves, suggesting that the Dutch coast is near the high-angle wave instability threshold.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Sandbars, submerged ridges of sand parallel to the shoreline, affect surfzone circulation, beach topography and beach width. Under time-varying wave forcing, sandbars may migrate onshore and offshore, referred to as two-dimensional (2D) behaviour, and vary in planshape from alongshore uniform ridges to alongshore non-uniform ridges through the growth and decay of three-dimensional (3D) patterns, referred to as 3D behaviour. Although 2D and 3D sandbar behaviour is reasonably well understood along straight coasts, this is not the case for curved coasts, where the curvature can invoke spatial variability in wave forcing. Here, we analyse sandbar behaviour along the 3000 m man-made curved coastline of the Sand Engine, Netherlands, and determine the wave conditions governing this behaviour. 2D and 3D behaviour was quantified within a box north and west of the Sand Engine's tip, respectively, using a 2.4-year dataset of daily low-tide video images and a sparser bathymetric dataset. The northern and western sides behaved similarly in terms of 2D behaviour, with seasonal onshore and offshore migration, resulting in a stable position on inter-annual timescales. However, both sandbar geometry and 3D behaviour differed substantially between both sides. The geometric differences (bar shape, bar crest depth and wavelength of 3D patterns) are consistent with computed alongshore differences in breaker height due to refraction. The differences in the timing in growth, decay and morphological coupling of 3D patterns in the sandbar and shoreline are likely related to differences in the local wave angle, imposed by the curved coast. Similar dependency of bar behaviour on local wave height and angle may be expected elsewhere along curved coasts, e.g. shoreline sandwaves, cuspate forelands or embayed beaches.

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