Abstract. The design of coastal protection measures and the quantification of coastal
risks at locations affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) are often based solely
on the analysis of historical cyclone tracks. Due to data scarcity and the
random nature of TCs, the assumption that a hypothetical TC could hit a
neighboring area with equal likelihood to past events can potentially lead
to over- and/or underestimations of extremes and associated risks. The
simulation of numerous synthetic TC tracks based on (historical) data can
overcome this limitation. In this paper, a new method for the generation of
synthetic TC tracks is proposed. The method has been implemented in the highly
flexible open-source Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool
(TCWiSE). TCWiSE uses an empirical track model based on Markov chains and can
simulate thousands of synthetic TC tracks and wind fields in any oceanic basin
based on any (historical) data source. Moreover, the tool can be used to
determine the wind extremes, and the output can be used for the reliable
assessment of coastal hazards. Validation results for the Gulf of Mexico show
that TC patterns and extreme wind speeds are well reproduced by TCWiSE.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.