Agriculture production is a crucial economic growth sector, especially for developing countries like Rwanda. Resulted from investments boosting in several areas, Rwanda experienced stable economic growth, where agriculture provides a vital contribution and significant Policies adopted for agriculture improvement. However, the sector's future development still unclear as it is manifesting decrement shares over the years in the county's economy and workforce. No research has yet projected the sector's future production to explain the sector's trend, allowing the government and partners to formulate strategies accordingly. This paper analyzes the sector's economic contribution over several years and forecasts its future. The useful combined grey model predicts the sector's production where a nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (NGBM) with an added optimal parameter (NGBM-OP) is used for the prediction after comparison to others. Outcomes in the sample size from 1960 to 2017, confirm the NGBM-OP as the reliable compared with other prediction models then becomes the best for forecast up to 2030. The obtained sector's production forecast, results pointed out the sector's slow production increment in the future. Suggest its improvement based on investment attractions, especially the young generation through financial facilitation, farmer's training, and opportunity awareness.

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Development and climate change are crucial global concerns with significant contrasts between developed and developing nations. Contrary to several developing countries, Rwanda opted for a green growth policy pathway while struggling with its economic emergence through the alternative green sectors, including agriculture. No research has yet been conducted on the choice’s performance on emission sequestration or the country’s income, allowing the formulation of strategies accordingly. The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), mostly adopted by developed countries, is applied for the Rwandese scenario to verify its adoption in developing countries. The within and between effects of the agricultural sector (AGRc) and gross domestic products (GDPc) on CO2 emission (CO2) are examined with an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration and coupling methods in January 2008−December 2018 period. Results confirm the short-run and long-run cointegration relationships of variables, where CO2-GDPc and CO2-AGRc are relatively decoupling and absolute decoupling, respectively. The EKC adoption to CO2-GDPc relationship, and the significant negative causality from GDPc and AGRc to CO2, are confirmed. The performance resulted from the country’s environment conservation policies, and Rwanda is a learning example as a developing country. However, the green economy through the agro-economy is at a low level and should be reinforced.