Determining the probabilistic limits for the uncertainty factors used in the derivation of the Reference Dose (RfD) is an important step toward the goal of characterizing the risk of noncarcinogenic effects from exposure to environmental pollutants. If uncertainty factors are seen, individually, as "upper bounds" on the dose-scaling factor for sources of uncertainty, then determining comparable upper bounds for combinations of uncertainty factors can be accomplished by treating uncertainty factors as distributions, which can be combined by probabilistic techniques. This paper presents a conceptual approach to probabilistic uncertainty factors based on the definition and use of RfDs by the U.S. EPA. The approach does not attempt to distinguish one uncertainty factor from another based on empirical data or biological mechanisms but rather uses a simple displaced lognormal distribution as a generic representation of all uncertainty factors. Monte Carlo analyses show that the upper bounds for combinations of this distribution can vary by factors of two to four when compared to the fixed-value uncertainty factor approach. The probabilistic approach is demonstrated in the comparison of Hazard Quotients based on RfDs with differing number of uncertainty factors.

Differences in the pharmacokinetics of xenobiotics among humans makes them differentially susceptible to risk. Differences in enzyme content can mediate pharmacokinetic differences. Microsomal protein is often isolated from liver to characterize enzyme content and activity, but no measures exist to extrapolate these data to the intact liver. Measures were developed from up to 60 samples of adult human liver to characterize the content of microsomal protein and cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzymes. Statistical evaluations are necessary to estimate values far from the mean value. Adult human liver contains 52.9 +/- 1.476 mg microsomal protein per g; 2587 +/- 1.84 pmoles CYP2E1 per g; and 5237 +/- 2.214 pmols CYP3A per g (geometric mean +/- geometric standard deviation). These values are useful for identifying and testing susceptibility as a function of enzyme content when used to extrapolate in vitro rates of chemical metabolism for input to physiologically based pharmacokinetic models which can then be exercised to quantify the effect of variance in enzyme expression on risk-relevant pharmacokinetic outcomes.

The toxicity data of pesticides were summarized and compared amongst different animal species and types of bioassays. These comparisons showed the expected inter-species and inter-bioassay variability. After quantitative and statistical analysis of these data, it was concluded that, on the average, a 2-year dog bioassay detected toxic responses at similar doses as a 2-year rat study, and that both of these bioassays detected toxic responses at lower doses than either a rat 2-generation bioassay, a rat developmental toxicity study, or a 2-year mouse bioassay. Although these chronic dog and rat bioassays were found to detect toxic responses at lower doses than the other studies listed, this analysis does not reflect the seriousness of the effects that were compared. Within the confines of this analysis, then, it appears that a 2-year dog and rat study, reproductive and developmental bioassays are a sufficient data base on which to estimate high confidence Reference Doses (RfDs), and furthermore, that an additional uncertainty factor is needed to estimate RfDs to account for this inter-species and inter-bioassay variability when fewer than this number of bioassays are available.