Volcanic ash is often deposited in a hot state. Volcanic ash containing glass, deposited above the glass transition interval, has the potential to sinter viscously both to itself (particle‐particle) and to exposed surfaces. Here we constrain the kinetics of this process experimentally under nonisothermal conditions using standard glasses. In the absence of external load, this process is dominantly driven by surface relaxation. In such cases the sintering process is rate limited by the melt viscosity, the size of the particles and the melt‐vapor interfacial tension. We propose a polydisperse continuum model that describes the transition from a packing of particles to a dense pore‐free melt and evaluate its efficacy in describing the kinetics of volcanic viscous sintering. We apply our model to viscous sintering scenarios for cooling crystal‐poor rhyolitic ash using the 2008 eruption of Chaitén volcano as a case example. We predict that moderate linear cooling rates of > 0.1°C min−1 can result in the common observation of incomplete sintering and the preservation of pore networks.

Elastic waves are generated when brittle materials are subjected to increasing strain. Their number and energy increase non-linearly, ending in a system-sized catastrophic failure event. Accelerating rates of geophysical signals (e.g., seismicity and deformation) preceding large-scale dynamic failure can serve as proxies for damage accumulation in the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Here we test the hypothesis that the style and mechanisms of deformation, and the accuracy of the FFM, are both tightly controlled by the degree of microstructural heterogeneity of the material under stress. We generate a suite of synthetic samples with variable heterogeneity, controlled by the gas volume fraction. We experimentally demonstrate that the accuracy of failure prediction increases drastically with the degree of material heterogeneity. These results have significant implications in a broad range of material-based disciplines for which failure forecasting is of central importance. In particular, the FFM has been used with only variable success to forecast failure scenarios both in the field (volcanic eruptions and landslides) and in the laboratory (rock and magma failure). Our results show that this variability may be explained, and the reliability and accuracy of forecast quantified significantly improved, by accounting for material heterogeneity as a first-order control on forecasting power.

We conduct experiments to investigate the sintering of high-viscosity liquid droplets. Free-standing cylinders of spherical glass beads are heated above their glass transition temperature, causing them to densify under surface tension. We determine the evolving volume of the bead pack at high spatial and temporal resolution. We use these data to test a range of existing models. We extend the models to account for the time-dependent droplet viscosity that results from non-isothermal conditions, and to account for non-zero final porosity. We also present a method to account for the initial distribution of radii of the pores interstitial to the liquid spheres, which allows the models to be used with no fitting parameters. We find a good agreement between the models and the data for times less than the capillary relaxation timescale. For longer times, we find an increasing discrepancy between the data and the model as the Darcy outgassing time-scale approaches the sintering timescale. We conclude that the decreasing permeability of the sintering system inhibits late-stage densification. Finally, we determine the residual, trapped gas volume fraction at equilibrium using X-ray computed tomography and compare this with theoretical values for the critical gas volume fraction in systems of overlapping spheres.

[1] Sintering and densification are ubiquitous processes influencing the emplacement of both effusive and explosive products of volcanic eruptions. Here we sinter ash-size fragments of a synthetic National Institute of Standards and Technology viscosity standard glass at temperatures at which the resultant melt has a viscosity of ∼108–109 Pa.s at 1bar to assess sintering dynamics under near-surface volcanic conditions. We track the strength recovery via uniaxial compressive tests. We observe that volcanic ash sintering is dominantly time dependent, temperature dependent, and grain size dependent and may thus be interpreted to be controlled by melt viscosity and surface tension. Sintering evolves from particle agglutination to viscous pore collapse and is accompanied by a reduction in connected porosity and an increase in isolated pores. Sintering and densification result in a nonlinear increase in strength. Micromechanical modeling shows that the pore-emanated crack model explains the strength of porous lava as a function of pore fraction and size.

Tuffisites are veins of variably sintered, pyroclastic particles that form in conduits and lava domes as a result of localized fragmentation events during gas-and-ash explosions. Those observed in-situ on the active 2012 lava dome of Volcán de Colima range from voids with intra-clasts showing little movement and interpreted to be failure-nuclei, to sub-parallel lenses of sintered granular aggregate interpreted as fragmentation horizons, through to infilled fractures with evidence of viscous remobilization. All tuffisites show evidence of sintering. Further examination of the complex fracture-and-channel patterns reveals viscous backfill by surrounding magma, suggesting that lava fragmentation was followed by stress relaxation and continued viscous deformation as the tuffisites formed. The natural tuffisites are more permeable than the host andesite, and have a wide range of porosity and permeability compared to a narrower window for the host rock, and gaging from their significant distribution across the dome, we posit that the tuffisite veins may act as important outgassing pathways. To investigate tuffisite formation we crushed and sieved andesite from the lava dome and sintered it at magmatic temperatures for different times. We then assessed the healing and sealing ability by measuring porosity and permeability, showing that sintering reduces both over time. During sintering the porosity-permeability reduction occurs due to the formation of viscous necks between adjacent grains, a process described by the neck-formation model of Frenkel (1945). This process leads the granular starting material to a porosity-permeability regime anticipated for effusive lavas, and which describes the natural host lava as well as the most impervious of natural tuffisites. This suggests that tuffisite formation at Volcán de Colima constructed a permeable network that enabled gas to bleed passively from the magma. We postulate that this progressively reduced the lava dome's ability to seal and build pressure that drives explosions. Indeed, the time interval between explosions during 2007-2011 gradually increased before the onset of a period of quiescence starting in June 2011. We suggest that the permeability evolution during tuffisite formation has important consequences for modeling of gas-and-ash explosions, common at dome-forming volcanoes.