No abstract

Predicting the patient's clinical outcome from the historical electronic medical records (EMR) is a fundamental research problem in medical informatics. Most deep learning-based solutions for EMR analysis concentrate on learning the clinical visit embedding and exploring the relations between visits. Although those works have shown superior performances in healthcare prediction, they fail to explore the personal characteristics during the clinical visits thoroughly. Moreover, existing works usually assume that the more recent record weights more in the prediction, but this assumption is not suitable for all conditions. In this paper, we propose ConCare to handle the irregular EMR data and extract feature interrelationship to perform individualized healthcare prediction. Our solution can embed the feature sequences separately by modeling the time-aware distribution. ConCare further improves the multi-head self-attention via the cross-head decorrelation, so that the inter-dependencies among dynamic features and static baseline information can be effectively captured to form the personal health context. Experimental results on two real-world EMR datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of ConCare. The medical findings extracted by ConCare are also empirically confirmed by human experts and medical literature.

Objective We aim to develop a hybrid model for earlier and more accurate predictions for the number of infected cases in pandemics by (1) using patients’ claims data from different counties and states that capture local disease status and medical resource utilization; (2) utilizing demographic similarity and geographical proximity between locations; and (3) integrating pandemic transmission dynamics into a deep learning model. Materials and Methods We proposed a spatio-temporal attention network (STAN) for pandemic prediction. It uses a graph attention network to capture spatio-temporal trends of disease dynamics and to predict the number of cases for a fixed number of days into the future. We also designed a dynamics-based loss term for enhancing long-term predictions. STAN was tested using both real-world patient claims data and COVID-19 statistics over time across US counties. Results STAN outperforms traditional epidemiological models such as susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR), susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR), and deep learning models on both long-term and short-term predictions, achieving up to 87% reduction in mean squared error compared to the best baseline prediction model. Conclusions By combining information from real-world claims data and disease case counts data, STAN can better predict disease status and medical resource utilization.

Diagnosis prediction, which aims to predict future health information of patients from historical electronic health records (EHRs), is a core research task in personalized healthcare. Although some RNN-based methods have been proposed to model sequential EHR data, these methods have two major issues. First, they cannot capture fine-grained progression patterns of patient health conditions. Second, they do not consider the mutual effect between important context (e.g., patient demographics) and historical diagnosis. To tackle these challenges, we propose a model called Co-Attention Memory networks for diagnosis Prediction (CAMP), which tightly integrates historical records, fine-grained patient conditions, and demographics with a threeway interaction architecture built on co-attention. Our model augments RNNs with a memory network to enrich the representation capacity. The memory network enables analysis of finegrained patient conditions by explicitly incorporating a taxonomy of diseases into an array of memory slots. We instantiate the READ/WRITE operations of the memory network so that the memory cooperates effectively with the patient demographics through co-attention mechanism. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CAMP consistently performs better than state-of-the-art methods.