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Rapid prediction of earthquake casualties is vital to improve the efficiency of emergency rescue and reduce social losses. Using the Delphi process, nine feature attributes affecting post-earthquake casualties are identified. Corresponding membership functions for the feature attributes are established based on fuzzy theory. The objective weights of feature attributes obtained from the entropy technology are applied to modify the subjective weights from Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). To expand the size of the case base, a new idea of collecting cases based on seismic intensity scenarios is proposed. A numerical experiment is carried out for all cases in the case base along the proposed fuzzy Case-Based Reasoning technical route. The average prediction error is only 14.93% .

The external diseconomy is hampering sustainable development of the city logistics sector. Burdens on urban environment imposed by the city logistics industry have been put in the spotlight. Based on the principle of Life Cycle Analysis, the comprehensive environment impact for city logistics systems is measured. Firstly, with the city logistics service chain as a whole, its business processes and their interactions with environment are analyzed. In total four types of major environment impact categories are determined. Secondly, case study is made on three city logistics operators located in Jing-Jin-Ji region of China with different business modes, respectively self-operation mode, joint distribution mode and the 3 rd Party Logistics or 3PL mode. Through analysis of energy consumption and emissions for various business processes, their comprehensive environmental impact values are finally obtained. Thirdly, horizontally comparative analysis is carried out to these three modes of the urban logistics distribution systems. Results show the advantages of the 3PL and the joint distribution modes in developing greener urban logistics distribution. Future research avenues and policy suggestions are proposed finally.

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