Classic" forest plots show the effect sizes from individual studies and the aggregate effect from a meta-analysis. However, in ecology and evolution, meta-analyses routinely contain over 100 effect sizes, making the classic forest plot of limited use. We surveyed 102 meta-analyses in ecology and evolution, finding that only 11% use the classic forest plot. Instead, most used a "forestlike plot," showing point estimates (with 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) from a series of subgroups or categories in a meta-regression. We propose a modification of the forest-like plot, which we name the "orchard plot." Orchard plots, in addition to showing overall mean effects and CIs from meta-analyses/ regressions, also include 95% prediction intervals (PIs), and the individual

Differences in relative fitness of male and female offspring across ecological and social environments should favour the evolution of sex-determining mechanisms that enable adjustment of brood sex ratio to the context of breeding. Despite the expectation that genetic sex determination should not produce consistent bias in primary sex ratios, extensive and adaptive modifications of offspring sex ratio in relation to social and physiological conditions during reproduction are often documented. Such discordance emphasizes the need for empirical investigation of the proximate mechanisms for modifying primary sex ratios, and suggests epigenetic effects on sex-determining mechanisms as the most likely candidates. Birds, in particular, are thought to have an unusually direct opportunity to modify offspring sex ratio because avian females are heterogametic and because the sex-determining division in avian meiosis occurs prior to ovulation and fertilization. However, despite evidence of strong epigenetic effects on sex determination in pre-ovulatory avian oocytes, the mechanisms behind such effects remain elusive. Our review of molecular and cytological mechanisms of avian meiosis uncovers a multitude of potential targets for selection on biased segregation of sex chromosomes, which may reflect the diversity of mechanisms and levels on which such selection operates in birds. Our findings indicate that pronounced differences between sex chromosomes in size, shape, size of protein bodies, alignment at the meiotic plate, microtubule attachment and epigenetic markings should commonly produce biased segregation of sex chromosomes as the default state, with secondary evolution of compensatory mechanisms necessary to maintain unbiased meiosis. We suggest that it is the epigenetic effects that modify such compensatory mechanisms that enable context-dependent and precise adjustment of primary sex ratio in birds. Furthermore, we highlight the features of avian meiosis that can be influenced by maternal hormones in response to environmental stimuli and may account for the precise and adaptive patterns of offspring sex ratio adjustment observed in some species.

Aims/hypothesisWe analysed the temporal changes in the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes and its demographic determinants in Poland from 1989 to 2004, validating the model with data from 1970 to 1989. We also estimated a predictive model of the trends in childhood diabetes incidence for the near future.MethodsChildren under 15 years with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes mellitus and drawn from seven regional registries in Poland were ascertained prospectively using the Epidemiology and Prevention of Diabetes study (EURODIAB) criteria. The type 1 diabetes incidence rates (IRs) were analysed in dependency of age, sex, seasonality, geographical region and population density. Time trends in IR were modelled using several approaches.ResultsThe average incidence, standardised by age and sex, for 1989 to 2004 was 10.2 per 100,000 persons per year and increased from 5.4 to 17.7. No difference was found between boys and girls, or between urban and rural regions. In children above 4 years, IR was significantly higher in the population of northern Poland than in that of the country’s southern part, as well as in the autumn–winter season, this finding being independent of child sex. Based on the trend model obtained, almost 1,600 Polish children aged 0 to 14 years are expected to develop type 1 diabetes in 2010, rising to more than 4,800 in 2025. The estimates suggest at least a fourfold increase of IR between 2005 and 2025, with the highest dynamics of this increment in younger children.Conclusions/interpretationThese estimates show that Poland will have to face a twofold higher increase in childhood type 1 diabetes than predicted for the whole European population. The dramatic increase could have real downstream effects on Poland’s healthcare system.

No abstract

The well-established view of the evolution of sex chromosome dimorphism is of a gradual genetic and morphological degeneration of the hemizygous chromosome. Yet, no large-scale comparative analysis exists to support this view. Here, we analysed karyotypes of 200 bird species to test whether the supposed directional changes occur in bird sex chromosomes. We found no support for the view that W chromosomes gradually become smaller over evolutionary time. On the contrary, the length of the W chromosome can fluctuate over short time scales, probably involving both shortening and elongation of non-coding regions. Recent discoveries of near-identical palindromes and neo-sex chromosomes in birds may also contribute to the observed variation. Further studies are now needed to investigate how chromosome morphology relates to its gene content, and whether the changes in size were driven by selection.