ResumenEn el siguiente documento se propone un enfoque de análisis cualitativo y con este una síntesis metodológica para definir y comprender el comportamiento complejo de un mercado de electricidad nacional. Para tal fin, se presenta una propuesta metodológica que rescata el conjunto de ecuaciones diferenciales ordinarias, para un modelo basado en dinámica de sistemas, cuyo propósito es reunir las principales características de un mercado de electricidad nacional fundamentado en la estrategia económica de oferta y demanda. Como se mostrará a lo largo del artículo, el propósito del mismo se fundamenta en el aprovechamiento y la manera en que para mercados de electricidad es posible utilizar la dinámica de sistemas y los sistemas dinámicos con un solo propósito, la formulación de elementos de política 1 Tecnológico de Antioquia, johnny.valencia@tdea.edu.co, ORCID:http://orcid.org/0000

and Colciencias (the Colombian research council) for the financial support under project 811-2018 Posdoctorados Nacionales. Gerard Olivar acknowledges Colciencias under project Modelado y simulación del metabolismo urbano de la ciudad de Bogotá D.C., code 111974558276; and DIMA, Universidad Nacional de Colombia under project Modelamiento avanzado de mercados de energía eléctrica para toma de decisiones de inversión y establecimiento de políticas, Hermes code 35467.

This research article presents the integration of participatory modeling and system dynamics as a novel methodology for the consolidation of social dynamic models for the subsequent evaluation and prioritization of green projects in Colombian post-conflict communities. First, through participatory work carried out with a community, the citizen factors were identified, evaluated, and systematized in relation to the problems and needs of the region. Second, based on the results obtained, a simulation model based on system dynamics—which facilitates decision-making with regard to the evaluation of green projects—was calibrated. The proposed methodology lead to the conclusion that, with the participation of the community, and with a model based on the dynamics of the variables—such as supply and demand—for natural water and land resources, it is possible to warn decision-makers about variables that can lead to the maximization of investments, and thus to prioritize and select the most appropriate environmental, social, or economic initiatives that meet the needs or expectations of the involved community. In the future, the model could be used to facilitate the management, administration, and control of water and land resources by creating alerts called reserve margins.

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