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Previous studies have identified the factors affecting successful technology commercialization as outcomes of R&D projects. However, most of them have used cross-sectional data, whereas there is a dearth of literature using longitudinal data analysis. Longitudinal analysis is essential for investigating the characteristics of early-stage innovative projects due to the inherent time lag between project evaluation and commercialization. Therefore, this study examines the early-stage project characteristics that can be used as meaningful evaluation criteria for predicting success, particularly in technology commercialization. We collected data on the ex-ante evaluation results and ex-post commercialization results of R&D projects pursued by entrepreneurial firms. We then conducted a logistic regression analysis and identified three market-related factors as significant in driving technology commercialization success in the early stages of technology development: market potential, commercialization plan, and market condition.