The general approach that uses multistage models of disease progression and accordingly stratified notification data can be applied in various settings for the routine estimation of incidence and CDR.

This paper is devoted to the construction of the mathematical model of the tuberculosis morbidity dynamics. The model takes into account the peculiarities of morbidity epidemiology and its control. The model is adjusted to the data collected in the Orlovskaya oblast. The results obtained will be used for the analysis of the epidemiological situation and designing the effective strategy of tuberculosis control.