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Stored samples from women in the Stockholm screening study were reassayed for CA125II (Centocor, Malvern, PA) and OVX1. The postmenopausal women older than age 50 without ovarian cancer were randomly split into a training set to develop a screening test based on longitudinal marker levels and a second set to validate the test. The CA125II data from each woman is summarized by the slope and intercept from a linear regression of log(CAl25II) on time since first sample. The slope versus the intercept for the training set and the ovarian cancer cases formed a bivariate scatter plot. A curve was drawn on the scatter plot that separated most of the women with ovarian cancer from all other women; it delineated a screening test. The specificity of this test was examined on the validation set with a specificity of 99.8%. Bayes' theorem was used to calculate the risk of ovarian cancer (ROC) based on the intercept, slope, and assay variability. It is important to account for assay variability because it can produce large slopes over short periods of time. The maximum risk, which identified 83% (5 of 6) of the ovarian cancers detected within a year of last assay, was applied as a test to the training set and confirmed a high specificity of 99.7%. With this specificity and sensitivity, the ROC algorithm using the CA125II assay has an estimated positive predictive value of 16%, substantially greater than the positive predictive value based on a single assay. Further study is planned to confirm the sensitivity of this approach. Cancer 1995; 76:2004‐10.

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The significance of tumor spill in the early stages of ovarian carcinoma has been the subject of controversy. Since rupture of the capsule of the tumor may occur in several different ways, we analyzed all cases of early ovarian cancer treated at Radiumhemmet, Stockholm, Sweden, during the period 1974-1986, in which possible spill of tumor cells was catalogued in different groups. In 247 out of 394 patients (62%) the risk of spill had to be considered. There was no difference in survival between patients whose tumors had intact capsules and patients in whom rupture occurred during surgery-78% and 85%, respectively. On the other hand, a significant difference in survival was found between patients in whom rupture occurred before surgery and those with intraoperative rupture-59% and 85%, respectively. The conclusion can be drawn that manipulation during surgery which results in puncture or rupture does not have a negative influence on the outcome for the patients.