Activity cliffs are formed by pairs of structurally similar compounds that act against the same target but display a significant difference in potency. Such activity cliffs are the most prominent features of activity landscapes of compound data sets and a primary focal point of structure-activity relationship (SAR) analysis. The search for activity cliffs in various compound sets has been the topic of a number of previous investigations. So far, activity cliff analysis has concentrated on data mining for activity cliffs and on their graphical representation and has thus been descriptive in nature. By contrast, approaches for activity cliff prediction are currently not available. We have derived support vector machine (SVM) models to successfully predict activity cliffs. A key aspect of the approach has been the design of new kernels to enable SVM classification on the basis of molecule pairs, rather than individual compounds. In test calculations on different data sets, activity cliffs have been accurately predicted using specifically designed structural representations and kernel functions.

SVMs are currently among the best-performing approaches for chemical and biological property prediction and the computational identification of active compounds. It is anticipated that their use in drug discovery will further increase. Indeed, this will also include the development of SVM-based meta-classifiers that combine different approaches and exploit their individual strengths and complementarity.

A large-scale similarity search investigation has been carried out on 266 well-defined compound activity classes extracted from the ChEMBL database. The analysis was performed using two widely applied two-dimensional (2D) fingerprints that mark opposite ends of the current performance spectrum of these types of fingerprints, i.e., MACCS structural keys and the extended connectivity fingerprint with bond diameter four (ECFP4). For each fingerprint, three nearest neighbor search strategies were applied. On the basis of these search calculations, a similarity search profile of the ChEMBL database was generated. Overall, the fingerprint search campaign was surprisingly successful. In 203 of 266 test cases (∼76%), a compound recovery rate of at least 50% was observed with at least the better performing fingerprint and one search strategy. The similarity search profile also revealed several general trends. For example, fingerprint searching was often characterized by an early enrichment of active compounds in database selection sets. In addition, compound activity classes have been categorized according to different similarity search performance levels, which helps to put the results of benchmark calculations into perspective. Therefore, a compendium of activity classes falling into different search performance categories is provided. On the basis of our large-scale investigation, the performance range of state-of-the-art 2D fingerprinting has been delineated for compound data sets directed against a wide spectrum of pharmaceutical targets.

We provide a future perspective of the virtual screening field. A number of challenges will be highlighted that virtual screening will likely face when compound data will further grow at or beyond current rates and when much more target information will become available. These challenges go beyond computational efficiency issues (that will of course also play a critical role). For example, for structure-based approaches, the accuracy of scoring functions and energy calculations will need to be improved. For ligand-based approaches, the compound class-dependence of similarity methods needs to be further explored and relationships between molecular similarity and activity similarity need to be established. We also comment on the current and future value of virtual screening. Opportunities for further development in a postgenome era are also discussed. It is hoped that some of the views and hypotheses we articulate might stimulate further discussion about the virtual screening field going forward.