We focus on Internet rumors and present an empirical analysis and simulation results of their diffusion and convergence during emergencies. In particular, we study one rumor that appeared in the immediate aftermath of the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, which later turned out to be misinformation. By investigating whole Japanese tweets that were sent one week after the quake, we show that one correction tweet, which originated from a city hall account, diffused enormously. We also demonstrate a stochastic agent-based model, which is inspired by contagion model of epidemics SIR, can reproduce observed rumor dynamics. Our model can estimate the rumor infection rate as well as the number of people who still believe in the rumor that cannot be observed directly. For applications, rumor diffusion sizes can be estimated in various scenarios by combining our model with the real data.

We introduce solvable stochastic dealer models, which can reproduce basic empirical laws of financial markets such as the power law of price change. Starting from the simplest model that is almost equivalent to a Poisson random noise generator, the model becomes fairly realistic by adding only two effects: the self-modulation of transaction intervals and a forecasting tendency, which uses a moving average of the latest market price changes. Based on the present microscopic model of markets, we find a quantitative relation with market potential forces, which have recently been discovered in the study of market price modeling based on random walks.

SUMMARYAn Active Mass Driver (AMD) system is proposed to suppress actively the response of a building to irregular external excitations such as earthquakes and typhoons. This system has been introduced to an actual ten-storey office building for the first time in the world. The system controls the motions of a structure by means of an external energy supply. It consists of an auxiliary mass installed in a building and an actuator that operates the mass and produces a control force which counters disturbances to the building. The design method of the AMD system, including the location of the installation and the capacity and stability of the system, is proposed. Simplification of the control algorithm is also described.