The American Thoracic Society has previously published statements on what constitutes an adverse effect on health of air pollution in 1985 and 2000. We set out to update and broaden these past statements that focused primarily on effects on the respiratory system. Since then, many studies have documented effects of air pollution on other organ systems, such as on the cardiovascular and central nervous systems. In addition, many new biomarkers of effects have been developed and applied in air pollution studies. This current report seeks to integrate the latest science into a general framework for interpreting the adversity of the human health effects of air pollution. Rather than trying to provide a catalogue of what is and what is not an adverse effect of air pollution, we propose a set of considerations that can be applied in forming judgments of the adversity of not only currently documented, but also emerging and future effects of air pollution on human health. These considerations are illustrated by the inclusion of examples for different types of health effects of air pollution.

The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO2) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO2 emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy. Used by governments and other decision-makers in benefit–cost analysis for over a decade, SC-CO2 estimates draw on climate science, economics, demography and other disciplines. However, a 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine1 (NASEM) highlighted that current SC-CO2 estimates no longer reflect the latest research. The report provided a series of recommendations for improving the scientific basis, transparency and uncertainty characterization of SC-CO2 estimates. Here we show that improved probabilistic socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions, and discounting methods that collectively reflect theoretically consistent valuation of risk, substantially increase estimates of the SC-CO2. Our preferred mean SC-CO2 estimate is $185 per tonne of CO2 ($44–$413 per tCO2: 5%–95% range, 2020 US dollars) at a near-term risk-free discount rate of 2%, a value 3.6 times higher than the US government’s current value of $51 per tCO2. Our estimates incorporate updated scientific understanding throughout all components of SC-CO2 estimation in the new open-source Greenhouse Gas Impact Value Estimator (GIVE) model, in a manner fully responsive to the near-term NASEM recommendations. Our higher SC-CO2 values, compared with estimates currently used in policy evaluation, substantially increase the estimated benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation and thereby increase the expected net benefits of more stringent climate policies.

Background Ambient air pollution is a modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease, yet uncertainty remains about the size of risks at lower levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure which now occur in the USA and elsewhere. Methods We investigated the relationship of ambient PM2.5 exposure with cause-specific cardiovascular disease mortality in 565 477 men and women, aged 50 to 71 years, from the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study. During 7.5 x 106 person-years of follow up, 41 286 cardiovascular disease deaths, including 23 328 ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and 5894 stroke deaths, were ascertained using the National Death Index. PM2.5 was estimated using a hybrid land use regression (LUR) geostatistical model. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results Each increase of 10  μg/m3 PM2.5 (overall range, 2.9–28.0  μg/m3) was associated, in fully adjusted models, with a 16% increase in mortality from ischaemic heart disease [hazard ratio (HR) 1.16; 95% CI 1.09-1.22] and a 14% increase in mortality from stroke (HR 1.14; CI 1.02-1.27). Compared with PM2.5 exposure <8  μg/m3 (referent), risks for CVD were increased in relation to PM2.5 exposures in the range of 8–12  μg/m3 (CVD: HR 1.04; 95% CI 1.00-1.08), in the range 12–20  μg/m3 (CVD: HR 1.08; 95% CI 1.03-1.13) and in the range 20+ μg/m3 (CVD: HR 1.19; 95% CI 1.10-1.28). Results were robust to alternative approaches to PM2.5 exposure assessment and statistical analysis. Conclusions Long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution is associated with ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality, with excess risks occurring in the range of and below the present US long-term standard for ambient exposure to PM2.5 (12  µg/m3), indicating the need for continued improvements in air pollution abatement for CVD prevention.

Background:Outdoor fine particulate matter (≤ 2.5 μm; PM2.5) has been identified as a global health threat, but the number of large U.S. prospective cohort studies with individual participant data remains limited, especially at lower recent exposures.Objectives:We aimed to test the relationship between long-term exposure PM2.5 and death risk from all nonaccidental causes, cardiovascular (CVD), and respiratory diseases in 517,041 men and women enrolled in the National Institutes of Health-AARP cohort.Methods:Individual participant data were linked with residence PM2.5 exposure estimates across the continental United States for a 2000–2009 follow-up period when matching census tract–level PM2.5 exposure data were available. Participants enrolled ranged from 50 to 71 years of age, residing in six U.S. states and two cities. Cox proportional hazard models yielded hazard ratio (HR) estimates per 10 μg/m3 of PM2.5 exposure.Results:PM2.5 exposure was significantly associated with total mortality (HR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.05) and CVD mortality (HR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.15), but the association with respiratory mortality was not statistically significant (HR = 1.05; 95% CI: 0.98, 1.13). A significant association was found with respiratory mortality only among never smokers (HR = 1.27; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.56). Associations with 10-μg/m3 PM2.5 exposures in yearly participant residential annual mean, or in metropolitan area-wide mean, were consistent with baseline exposure model results. Associations with PM2.5 were similar when adjusted for ozone exposures. Analyses of California residents alone also yielded statistically significant PM2.5 mortality HRs for total and CVD mortality.Conclusions:Long-term exposure to PM2.5 air pollution was associated with an increased risk of total and CVD mortality, providing an independent test of the PM2.5–mortality relationship in a new large U.S. prospective cohort experiencing lower post-2000 PM2.5 exposure levels.Citation:Thurston GD, Ahn J, Cromar KR, Shao Y, Reynolds HR, Jerrett M, Lim CC, Shanley R, Park Y, Hayes RB. 2016. Ambient particulate matter air pollution exposure and mortality in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health cohort. Environ Health Perspect 124:484–490; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509676

BACKGROUND Long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM) air pollution is associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, the impact of PM on clinical risk factors for CVD in healthy subjects is unclear. We examined the relationship of PM with levels of circulating lipids and blood pressure in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), a large nationally-representative US survey. METHODS This study was based on 11,623 adult participants of NHANES III (1988–1994; median age 41.0). Serum lipids and blood pressure were measured during the NHANES III examination. Average exposure for 1988–1994 to particulate matter <10µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) at the residences of participants was estimated based on measurements from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency monitors. Multivariate linear regression was used to estimate the associations of PM10 with lipids and blood pressure. RESULTS An interquartile range width (IQRw) increase in PM10 exposure (11.1 µg/m3) in the study population was associated with 2.42 percent greater serum triglycerides (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09–3.76); multivariate adjusted means of triglycerides according to increasing quartiles of PM10 were 137.6, 142.5, 142.6, and 148.9 mg/dL, respectively. An IQRw increase in PM10 was associated with 1.43 percent greater total cholesterol (95% CI: 1.21–1.66). These relationships with triglycerides and total cholesterol did not differ by age or region. Associations of PM10 with blood pressure were modest. CONCLUSIONS Findings from this large diverse study indicate that greater long-term PM10 exposure is associated with elevated serum triglycerides and total cholesterol, potentially mediating air pollution-related effects on CVD.