Insurance companies do not differentiate their customers based on their driving behavior in Iran that leads to reckless driving and thereby imposes significant costs to the society. We provided a model that can predict effects of different policies and discounts on market share of insurance companies. The usage of model has been tested in Tehran insurance market and the results provided showed that people would consider changing their insurance plans based on discounts and costs. Further, the first movers (i.e. the insurance companies that offer the discounts first) would absorb safer drivers and thereby stand in a superior financial position. This could significantly change the dynamics and the role of major players in the insurance market.

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