No abstract

This study makes a causal inference on the effects of anti-contagion and economic policies on small business by conducting a survey on Japanese small business managers' expectations about the pandemic, policies, and firm performance. We first find the business suspension request decreased targeted firms' sales by 10 percentage points on top of the baseline 8 percentage points decline due to COVID-19. Second, using a discontinuity in the eligibility criteria, we find lump-sum subsidies improved firms' prospects of survival by 19 percentage points. Third, the medium-run recovery of firms' performance is expected to depend crucially on when infections would end, indicating that stringent anti-contagion policies could complement longer-run economic goals.

This study makes a causal inference on the effects of anti-contagion and economic policies on small business by conducting a survey on Japanese small business managers' expectations about the pandemic, policies, and firm performance. We first find the business suspension request decreased targeted firms' sales by 10 percentage points on top of the baseline 8 percentage points decline due to COVID-19. Second, using a discontinuity in the eligibility criteria, we find lump-sum subsidies improved firms' prospects of survival by 19 percentage points. Third, the medium-run recovery of firms' performance is expected to depend crucially on when infections would end, indicating that stringent anti-contagion policies could complement longer-run economic goals.