A physically based model which predicts rainfall distribution using three-dimensionally scanning Doppler radar is proposed.Most of short-range rainfall prediction models using three-dimensionally scanning radar are based on time-extrapolating method. Since physical processes of rainfall phenomenon are not included i those models, the accuracy of prediction is difficult to be more improved.So we offer the method which takes into account the water balance and its phase change in the atomosphere as well as the wind components estimated by VAD analysis using three-dimensionally scanning Doppler radar. The results from a numerical experiment indicate that this method is more effective for short-range rainfall prediction than time-extrapolating method.