The price movements of commodities are determined by changes in the expectations about future economic variables. Crude oil price is non-stationary, highly volatile, and unstructured in nature, which makes it very difficult to predict over short-to-medium time horizons. Some analysts have indicated that the difficulty in forecasting the crude oil price is due to the fact that economic models cannot consistently show evidence of a strong connection between commodities and economic fundamentals, and, as a result, regarded the idea that economic fundamentals help predict price values as random luck. This study aimed to overcome the limitations of the economic models through the detection of structural changes as well as breaks in the data, using a breakpoint test. The Markov switching model is used to address the price patterns that led to a different market state. The results show that there are several changes as well as breaks in the estimated model. Moreover, there is an asymmetric correlation between the crude oil price and the GDP.
The impact of structural changes as well as breaks on oil price fluctuations is studied in this article. There are a few channels, such as domestic prices and inflation, that cause the effect of oil price to pass through the economy. The higher crude oil price is immediately followed by the increase in oil products such as gasoline and heating oil. The direct effects continue as people choose alternative energy sources, leading to the increase in price. Besides, the indirect effect on inflation as a result of the behavioral responses of the firms and workers which is known as the “second round” effects in which higher wages is being demanded. This article uses exploratory data analysis to discover the patterns of the variables’ series and then examines the relationship between oil price and consumer price index. Multiple breakpoint test is thereafter used to identify the structural changes in time-varying variables.
The Frog Virtual Learning Environment (Frog VLE) is a virtual learning medium that is one of the main agendas in today's educational landscape especially in Malaysia. The main objective of using Frog VLE is to simplify and enhance teaching and learning process. This study evaluated the effectiveness of Frog VLE in primary school using the Technology Acceptance Model. The study was carried out using a quasi-experimental design involving two groups; one control group and a treatment group. The former used the chalk-and-talk approach, while the latter used the Frog VLE approach. We administered a structured questionnaire to a primary school in Malaysia to elucidate the students' perspective on the usage of Frog VLE in teaching and learning process. The mean score analysis and paired-t test were applied to the analysis, and the results showed that the majority of the students found that the Frog VLE tool is useful and effective for learning.
Public transport is a shared passenger transport service available for public use. Increased population is accompanied by the increased demand for private vehicles. The exponential growth in the number of private vehicles will result in negative impacts such as air pollution, excessive noise, and traffic congestion. Additionally, customers' perceptions on different aspects include safety, operation or time, comfortableness and cleanness of public transportation that are also essential in affecting their mode of choice when travelling. The public transport that is discussed in this paper is light rail transit. This paper intends to investigate the main purpose of using light rail transit and elucidate the public perspective of the light rail transit via factor analysis and correlation analysis. A questionnaire with five-point Likert scale was designed, and data were randomly selected from 200 light rail transit users in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The results revealed that the majority of the customers use light rail transit to school or university. Moreover, most of the users satisfy with the safety, operation, cost, comfortableness and cleanness of the light rail transit. This can be concluded that light rail transit provides mobility and choice for everyone in the context of efficiency, health and safety, affordability, accessibility, and environmental friendliness.
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