Summary Background As Chagas disease continues to expand beyond tropical and subtropical zones, a growing need exists to better understand its resulting economic burden to help guide stakeholders such as policy makers, funders, and product developers. We developed a Markov simulation model to estimate the global and regional health and economic burden of Chagas disease from the societal perspective. Methods Our Markov model structure had a 1 year cycle length and consisted of five states: acute disease, indeterminate disease, cardiomyopathy with or without congestive heart failure, megaviscera, and death. Major model parameter inputs, including the annual probabilities of transitioning from one state to another, and present case estimates for Chagas disease came from various sources, including WHO and other epidemiological and disease-surveillance-based reports. We calculated annual and lifetime health-care costs and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for individuals, countries, and regions. We used a discount rate of 3% to adjust all costs and DALYs to present-day values. Findings On average, an infected individual incurs US$474 in health-care costs and 0·51 DALYs annually. Over his or her lifetime, an infected individual accrues an average net present value of $3456 and 3·57 DALYs. Globally, the annual burden is $627·46 million in health-care costs and 806 170 DALYs. The global net present value of currently infected individuals is $24·73 billion in health-care costs and 29 385 250 DALYs. Conversion of this burden into costs results in annual per-person costs of $4660 and lifetime per-person costs of $27 684. Global costs are $7·19 billion per year and $188·80 billion per lifetime. More than 10% of these costs emanate from the USA and Canada, where Chagas disease has not been traditionally endemic. A substantial proportion of the burden emerges from lost productivity from cardiovascular disease-induced early mortality. Interpretation The economic burden of Chagas disease is similar to or exceeds those of other prominent diseases globally (eg, rotavirus $2·0 billion, cervical cancer $4·7 billion) even in the USA (Lyme disease $2·5 billion), where Chagas disease has not been traditionally endemic, suggesting an economic argument for more attention and efforts towards control of Chagas disease. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of General Medical Sciences Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study.

Chagas disease is a leading cause of heart disease affecting approximately 10 million people in Latin America and elsewhere worldwide. The two major drugs available for the treatment of Chagas disease have limited efficacy in Trypanosoma cruzi-infected adults with indeterminate (patients who have seroconverted but do not yet show signs or symptoms) and determinate (patients who have both seroconverted and have clinical disease) status; they require prolonged treatment courses and are poorly tolerated and expensive. As an alternative to chemotherapy, an injectable therapeutic Chagas disease vaccine is under development to prevent or delay Chagasic cardiomyopathy in patients with indeterminate or determinate status. The bivalent vaccine will be comprised of two recombinant T. cruzi antigens, Tc24 and TSA-1, formulated on alum together with the Toll-like receptor 4 agonist, E6020. Proof-of-concept for the efficacy of these antigens was obtained in preclinical testing at the Autonomous University of Yucatan. Here the authors discuss the potential for a therapeutic Chagas vaccine as well as the progress made towards such a vaccine, and the authors articulate a roadmap for the development of the vaccine as planned by the nonprofit Sabin Vaccine Institute Product Development Partnership and Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development in collaboration with an international consortium of academic and industrial partners in Mexico, Germany, Japan, and the USA.

Highlights► Human hookworm infection is a leading cause of iron deficiency anemia. ► An estimated 700 million people in developing countries are affected. ► The Sabin Vaccine Institute PDP is developing the vaccine in collaboration with FIOCRUZ. ► The vaccine comprises two recombinant protein antigens on alum and a TLR4 agonist. ► The partnership's plan is that the vaccine will be licensed by 2020.

With several candidate dengue vaccines under development, this is an important time to help stakeholders (e.g., policy makers, scientists, clinicians, and manufacturers) better understand the potential economic value (cost-effectiveness) of a dengue vaccine, especially while vaccine characteristics and strategies might be readily altered. We developed a decision analytic Markov simulation model to evaluate the potential health and economic value of administering a dengue vaccine to an individual (≤ 1 year of age) in Thailand from the societal perspective. Sensitivity analyses evaluated the effects of ranging various vaccine (e.g., cost, efficacy, side effect), epidemiological (dengue risk), and disease (treatment-seeking behavior) characteristics. A ≥ 50% efficacious vaccine was highly cost-effective [< 1× per capita gross domestic product (GDP) ($4,289)] up to a total vaccination cost of $60 and cost-effective [< 3× per capita GDP ($12,868)] up to a total vaccination cost of $200. When the total vaccine series was $1.50, many scenarios were cost saving.

BackgroundChagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi (T. cruzi), is the leading etiology of non-ischemic heart disease worldwide, with Latin America bearing the majority of the burden. This substantial burden and the limitations of current interventions have motivated efforts to develop a vaccine against T. cruzi.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe constructed a decision analytic Markov computer simulation model to assess the potential economic value of a T. cruzi vaccine in Latin America from the societal perspective. Each simulation run calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), or the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) avoided, of vaccination. Sensitivity analyses evaluated the impact of varying key model parameters such as vaccine cost (range: $0.50–$200), vaccine efficacy (range: 25%–75%), the cost of acute-phase drug treatment (range: $10–$150 to account for variations in acute-phase treatment regimens), and risk of infection (range: 1%–20%). Additional analyses determined the incremental cost of vaccinating an individual and the cost per averted congestive heart failure case. Vaccination was considered highly cost-effective when the ICER was ≤1 times the GDP/capita, still cost-effective when the ICER was between 1 and 3 times the GDP/capita, and not cost-effective when the ICER was >3 times the GDP/capita. Our results showed vaccination to be very cost-effective and often economically dominant (i.e., saving costs as well providing health benefits) for a wide range of scenarios, e.g., even when risk of infection was as low as 1% and vaccine efficacy was as low as 25%. Vaccinating an individual could likely provide net cost savings that rise substantially as risk of infection or vaccine efficacy increase.Conclusions/SignificanceResults indicate that a T. cruzi vaccine could provide substantial economic benefit, depending on the cost of the vaccine, and support continued efforts to develop a human vaccine.