No abstract

Recently, local cities in Japan are confronting difficulties attributable to population decline. One solution is the "compact city". This research, focusing on Higashihiroshima City, was conducted to elucidate spatial patterns of population change and to design compact city scenarios. Population change pattern analysis reveals that housing development in an urbanization control area is preventing the realization of compact city. From the viewpoint of urban facility costs and CO2 emissions, we evaluated the BAU scenario as of 2040 and three alternative scenarios. The alternative scenario demonstrates the possibility of obtaining a certain effect even by merely halting small-scale development of suburbs.