Highlights Transmission of potato yellow vein virus by a single whitefly vector was found to be highly temperature dependent. A non-linear mathematical function to describe the relationship between temperature and transmission likelihood was developed. A virus risk index was created by combining the virus transmission function and a whitefly phenology model. Detailed maps were generated indicating the risk of virus transmission using current and predicted future climate scenarios. Maps were used for surveillance of high-risk areas outside the known geographic range of the virus, leading to its discovery in a new region.