No abstract

The object of the research is the diagnosis and evaluation of financial risks in order to create an effective risk management policy. The subject of the research is the methodology of direct fuzzy evaluation of financial risk “chains” of an organisation. The relevance of the problem is due, on the one hand, to the dynamic and chaotic macro-environment and the business environment of organisations, on the other hand, to the drawback of the analytical and expert methods used to assess financial risks. The former, moreover, imply statistical data processing and operate with quantitative measures. For the latter, the difficulty is the impossibility of their application in a short time interval. From the perspective of operational risk management, financial risks deserve special attention since the effective operation of the entire organisation depends on them. The purpose of the research is to form a methodology for direct fuzzy evaluation of financial risk “chains” of an organisation. The authors apply the methods of mathematical forecasting, fuzzy modelling, calculation of financial and economic indicators, and expert risk assessment. The proposed methodology consists of 12 stages, beginning with the analysis of business processes and the identification of financial risks of the organisation. The main stage is the construction of a fuzzy evaluation model and the calculation of indicators: the probability of occurrence and realization of risks and risky situations of the financial risk “chains”, and the degree of confidence of the calculations conducted. The final stage of the methodology is an analysis of the results obtained to adjust the selected development strategy of the organisation, and the choice of methods for managing identified financial risks bearing the most significant financial and economic losses. The authors conclude the developed methodology allows to accurately assess the threat of a certain risk “chain” and losses from the implementation of specific risk situations for any organisation in the conditions of dynamic changes in internal and external elements of the business environment. The advantage of the methodology should be considered in the comparability of the accuracy of the evaluation and the low cost of modelling.

This article considers the urgent scientific and practical task of developing analytical tools to justify the choice and transformation of a business model for an economic organization in a rapidly changing business environment. The mathematical apparatus of cognitive modelling is proposed to use to solve this problem, which makes it possible, based on the analysis of cause- effect relationships between the most significant conditions and factors affecting the economic efficiency and competitiveness of doing business, to improve the reasonableness and reduce the subjectivity of the decisions made by its owners and top managers. An algorithm to justify the choice of a business model for an organization based on the construction and analysis of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) of business models is proposed. A common list of business factors (concepts) and a set of causality relations between each pair of concepts has been defined, and a basic FCM of the business model is developed as the basis for constructing FCM models of specific businesses. An example of the application of the developed toolkit in a strategic analysis of the conditions and factors of an organization undertaking the production of furniture, carried out to justify a change in competitive strategy and the associated transformation of the business model, is considered. The analysis has been performed using specialized cognitive modelling software developed at the department of information technologies in economics and management, branch of the National Research University Moscow Power Engineering Institute in Smolensk. The proposed toolkit improves methods and algorithms for intelligent decision-making support in the management of economic and social objects and can find practical application in the strategic management of commercial organizations in various fields, as well as be used by professional consultants in the preparation of recommendations for business model change.