Key Points Question Do practitioners understand the probability of common clinical diagnoses? Findings In this survey study of 553 practitioners performing primary care, respondents overestimated the probability of diagnosis before and after testing. This posttest overestimation was associated with consistent overestimates of pretest probability and overestimates of disease after specific diagnostic test results. Meaning These findings suggest that many practitioners are unaccustomed to using probability in diagnosis and clinical practice. Widespread overestimates of the probability of disease likely contribute to overdiagnosis and overuse.

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The authors offer some comments on the advantages and possible drawbacks of using the SLICC criteria in longitudinal observational studies and clinical trials after applying and comparing them to the ACR criteria in two multinational, multiethnic lupus cohorts.

Anti-C1q performed the best of the potential biomarkers, being significantly associated with the modified SELENA-SLEDAI and with the Renal Activity Score. This study indicates the potential superior utility of anti-C1q over anti-dsDNA and other measures to track renal activity.