The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

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This study examines the effects of uncertainty on irreversible aggregate investment using data from 1971-2010. Results provide evidence to support the argument that macroeconomic uncertainties are important in the forwardlooking investment decision-making process. This study concludes that the demand and lagged demand uncertainties have a relatively stronger effect on investments compared with other macro uncertainties. The structure of the economy, the depth of the financial system, and the promotion of trade openness reduce the negative impact of uncertainties on investment. The study also finds the elasticity of the user cost of capital to be less than unity, indicating limited scope for governments to influence investment through tax incentives.

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