SummaryBackgroundOne of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes.MethodsWe pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.FindingsWe used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.InterpretationSince 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.FundingWellcome Trust.

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The purpose of this study was to determine if physical activity, aerobic fitness and isometric strength during adolescence were predictors of cardiovascular risk factor levels in young adulthood. The following measurements were carried out: maximal oxygen uptake (VO(2)max), maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) in four muscle groups, physical activity (questionnaire), blood pressure (BP), total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglycerides, anthropometric variables and body fat % (sum of four skinfolds). The data were collected from the Danish Youth and Sports study, an observational longitudinal study in which two measurements were carried out over an eight-year period. The findings in this study indicated that the relationships between the absolute levels of physical fitness and activity in adolescence and the subsequent level of CVD risk factors are weak. However, the changes in physical fitness and physical activity were related to the absolute levels of CVD risk factors in young adulthood, especially in men. Weak relationships were found between the changes in physical fitness/activity and changes in CVD risk factor levels in both sexes. In conclusion, many subjects changed their levels of physical activity and physical fitness between adolescence and young adulthood and the changes, especially in aerobic fitness, seemed to be the best predictor of CVD risk factor levels in young adulthood.

Coronary heart disease risk factors tracked in both males and females, but only in males was a strong relationship found for total risk from adolescence to young adulthood, indicating the influence of a poor lifestyle in high-risk men. Lower social status related to higher risk.

The aims of this study were to investigate whether physical activity (PA) and sedentary time (ST) in 9-and 15-year-olds differed between 2005-2006 and 2011-2012 (secular change), and to investigate changes in PA and ST from age 9 to 15 (longitu- decline in PA in the participants followed longitudinally from age 9 to 15 years.