This study shows a significant relationship between the high within-patient variability in the clearance of tacrolimus, but not for MPA, and long-term graft failure.

Tacrolimus is a critical dose drug with a considerable intrapatient variability (IPV) in its pharmacokinetics. We investigated whether a high IPV in tacrolimus exposure is associated with adverse long-term renal transplantation outcomes. Tacrolimus IPV was calculated from predose concentrations measured between 6 and 12 months post-transplantation of 808 renal transplant recipients (RTRs) transplanted between 2000 and 2010. One hundred and eighty-eight (23.3%) patients reached the composite end point consisting of graft loss, late biopsy-proven rejection, transplant glomerulopathy, or doubling of serum creatinine concentration between month 12 and the last follow-up. The cumulative incidence of the composite end point was significantly higher in patients with high IPV than in patients with low IPV (hazard ratio: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.06-1.89; P = 0.019). After the adjustment for several factors, the higher incidence of the composite end point for RTRs with a high IPV remained statistically significant (hazard ratio: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.06-1.90; P = 0.019). Younger recipient age at transplantation, previous transplantation, worse graft function (at month 6 post-transplantation), and low mean tacrolimus concentration at 1 year post-transplantation were additional predictors for worse long-term transplant outcome. A high tacrolimus IPV is an independent risk factor for adverse kidney transplant outcomes that can be used as an easy monitoring tool to help identify high-risk RTRs.

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