Mangrove restoration is challenging within protected coastal habitats. Predicting the dominant species distributions in mangrove communities is essential for appropriate species selection and spatial planning for restoration. We explored the spatial distributions of six mangrove species, including their related environmental factors, thereby identifying potentially suitable habitats for mangrove protection and restoration. Based on six dominant mangrove species present in the Beibu Gulf, Guangxi, China, we used a linear correlation analysis to screen environmental factors. In addition, we used the maximum entropy model to analyze the spatial distributions of potential mangrove afforestation areas. Based on the spatial superposition analysis, we identified mangrove conservation and restoration hot spots. The findings indicate that topographic and bioclimatic factors affect the distribution of suitable mangrove habitats in the Beibu Gulf, followed by land use type, salinity, and substrate type. We identified 13,816 hm2 of prime mangrove habitat in the Beibu Gulf that is primarily distributed in protected areas. The protection rate for existing mangroves was 42.62%. According to the predicted spatial distributions of the mangrove plants, the findings suggest that mangrove restoration should be based on suitable species and site selection.

Context The restoration of mangroves is an significant challenge within the protection of coastal habitats. Predicting the distribution of dominant species in mangrove communities is essential for the appropriate selection of species and spatial planning for restoration. Objectives We explored the spatial distribution of six mangrove species including their related environmental factors, thereby identifying potentially suitable habitats for mangrove protection and restoration. Methods Based on six dominant mangrove species that occur in the Beibu Gulf of Guangxi, we used linear correlation analysis to screen environmental factors. In addition, we used the maximum entropy model to analyze the spatial distribution of potentially suitable areas for mangrove afforestation. Based on spatial superposition analysis, we identified mangrove conservation and restoration hot spots. Results Our findings indicate that the main factors affecting the distribution of suitable mangrove habitat in the Beibu Gulf are topographic factors, followed by bioclimatic factors, land-use type, marine salinity, and substrate type. We identified 13,816 hm2 of prime mangrove habitat in the Beibu Gulf, primarily distributed in protected areas. The protection rate for existing mangroves was approximately 42.62%. Conclusions We identified the dominant environmental factors and their thresholds for the distribution of six mangrove species and identified the spatial distribution of individual species and location of suitable rehabilitation sites. According to the predicted spatial distribution of mangrove plants, our findings suggest that mangrove restoration should be based on suitable species and sites.