Lake Taihu is the third-largest freshwater lake in China and has been suffering from cyanobacterial blooms for over two decades. The northern part of the lake, Meiliang Bay, is known to be at high risk of dense and sustained Microcystis blooms and toxins. This study aimed to investigate and record the annual and seasonal dynamics of toxic genotype, Microcystis morphospecies succession and microcystin variation. It also aimed to find out the underlying driving factors influencing the dynamic changes. Microcystin (MC) and the Microcystis genotype were quantified using HPLC and quantitative real-time PCR, respectively. Our study, over three consecutive years, showed that the pattern of morphospecies succession was seasonally distinct and annually consistent. During the same period in 2012, 2013 and 2014, the average MC were, on dry weight basis, 733 μg·g−1, 844 μg·g−1, 870 μg·g−1, respectively. The proportion of toxic Microcystis accounted for 41%, 44% and 52%, respectively. Cell bound microcystin was found to correlate with the percentage of toxic Microcystis. Based on historical and current data, we conclude that annual bloom toxicity was relatively stable or possibly increased over the last decade.

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