ObjectiveTo evaluate the risk of major infections and the relationship between major infections and mortality in patients with newly diagnosed SLE.MethodsA newly diagnosed (<3 months) hospitalised Systemic Lupus Inception Cohort (hSLIC) in our centre during 1 January 2013 and 1 November 2020 was established. All patients were followed up for at least 1 year or until death. Patient baseline characteristics were collected. Major infection events were recorded during follow-up, which were defined as microbiological/clinical-based diagnosis treated with intravenous antimicrobials. The cohort was further divided into a training set and a testing set. Independent predictors of major infections were identified using multivariable logistic regression analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were conducted.ResultsAmong the 494 patients enrolled in the hSLIC cohort, there were 69 documented episodes of major infections during the first year of follow-up in 67 (14%) patients. The major infection events predominantly occurred within the first 4 months since enrolment (94%, 65/69) and were associated with all-cause mortality. After adjustments for glucocorticoid and immunosuppressant exposure, a prediction model based on SLE Disease Activity Index >10, peripheral lymphocyte count <0.8×109/L and serum creatinine >104 µmol/L was established to identify patients at low risk (3%–5%) or high risk (37%–39%) of major infections within the first 4 months.ConclusionsNewly onset active SLE is susceptible to major infections, which is probably due to underlying profound immune disturbance. Identifying high-risk patients using an appropriate prediction tool might lead to better tailored management and better outcome.

ObjectiveRecurrent disease flare is one of the key problems in lupus patients. A Chinese Flare-Prevention Lupus Initiative Cohort (FLIC) was established. Risk factors of disease flare were evaluated accordingly.MethodsPatients with low-grade disease activity (the Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment–SLE Disease Activity Index (SELENA-SLEDAI) =≤6, daily prednisone ≤20 mg, no British Isles Lupus Assessment Group A or no more than one B organ domain score) from January 2014 to August 2020 were included in the FLIC. Disease flares were defined by the modified SELENA-­SLEDAI Flare Index. Low disease activity status (LDAS) and remission were also assessed. The cumulative flare rate was estimated by an event per 100 person-years analysis. Cox proportional hazards models were performed to identify risk factors of subsequent disease flares after adjusting clinical confounders. Survival was assessed with the Kaplan-Meier method.Results448 eligible patients with low-grade disease activity were included in FLIC. During a mean follow-up of 30.4 months, 170 patients flared. The cumulative lupus flare rate was 22.2 events per 100 patient-years. Compared with patients without flare, those with lupus flares were taking more prednisone, had higher disease activity index and with less patients attained LDAS/remission at baseline. They also had higher rates of antiphospholipid antibodies (aPLs) and antiribosomal P antibody. Cox regression analysis confirmed that attainment of either LDAS or remission at baseline were independent protective factors against subsequent disease flare (LDAS but not in remission: HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.38~0.88; remission: HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.30~0.69), while aPL was a risk factor of lupus flares (HR 1.95, 95% CI 1.36~2.78). Kaplan-Meier curves indicated that attaining LDAS or remission and absence of aPL at baseline had the least flare risk.ConclusionsIn our real-world cohort study, not attaining LDAS or remission at baseline and aPL positivity was associated with higher risk of disease flares in patients with low-grade SLE.

IntroductionSLE is a chronic inflammatory systemic autoimmune disease with relapsing–remitting pattern. B-lymphocyte stimulator was involved in the pathogenesis of SLE. The humanised monoclonal antibody belimumab with 10 mg/kg was effective for active patients. However, the efficacy of low-dose belimumab for prevention of disease flares in patients with SLE with low disease activity is to be explored.Methods and analysisThis is a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial. Patients who have Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment–Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SELENA-SLEDAI) scores no higher than 6; with no A score or no more than one B score on the British Isles Lupus Assessment Group (BILAG) scale; and who are treated with prednisone (≤20 mg per day) at screening will be enrolled. 334 adults will be randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive intravenous 120 mg belimumab or placebo (saline) arm on weeks 0, 2, and 4, and then every 4 weeks until 48 weeks, with standard of care. The primary outcome measure is a composite index of severe or mild-to-moderate disease flares (SELENA-SLEDAI Flare Index) within 52 weeks. Secondary outcomes include the percentage of severe flare, the percentage of mild-to-moderate flare, time to first disease flare, changes in prednisone dose, SELENA-SLEDAI, as well as BILAG score, the percentage of patients achieving prednisone free and safety analysis.Ethics and disseminationThe protocol has been approved by the Ethics Committee of the Renji Hospital, Huashan Hospital and the Sixth People’s Hospital. The trial has been registered and the detailed information is available at https://clinicaltrialsgov/ct2/show/NCT04515719. The results of this clinical trial will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals and key findings will also be presented at national and international conferences.Trial registration numberNCT04515719.