Background Projections are presented of future numbers of older people with cognitive impairment (CI) in England, their demand for long-term care (LTC) services and future costs of their care. The sensitivity of the projections to factors that are likely to affect future LTC expenditure is explored. These factors include future numbers of older people, prevalence rates of CI, trends in household composition, informal care provision, care service patterns and unit costs.

A key feature of population ageing in Europe and other more economically developed countries is the projected unprecedented rise in need for long-term care in the next two decades. There is, however, considerable uncertainty over the future supply of unpaid care for older people by their adult children. The future of family care is particularly important in countries planning to reform their long-term care systems, as is the case in England. This article makes new projections of the supply of intense unpaid care for parents aged  and over in England to , and compares these projections with existing projections of demand for unpaid care by older people with disabilities from their children. The results show that the supply of unpaid care to older people with disabilities by their adult children in England is unlikely to keep pace with demand in future. By , there is projected to be a shortfall of , care-givers in England. Demand for unpaid care will begin to exceed supply by  and the unpaid 'care gap' will grow rapidly from then onwards. The article concludes by examining how far this unpaid 'care gap' is likely to be met by other sources of unpaid care or by developments in new technology and examines the implications of the findings for long-term care policy.KEY WORDS -unpaid care, intergenerational care, older people, long-term care policy, England, projections.

This article examines the thresholds at which provision of unpaid care affects employment in England. Previous research has shown that providing care for 20 or more hours a week has a negative effect on employment. The present article explores the impact of a lower threshold and asks whether provision of care for 10 or more hours a week has a negative effect on employment. The article focuses on women and men aged between 50 and State Pension Age (60 for women, 65 for men). The study uses data from the first four waves of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), collected in 2002/2003, 2004/2005, 2006/2007 and 2008/2009. Across these waves, there are 17,123 people aged 50-59/64 years, of whom 9% provide unpaid care to an adult. Using logistic regression analysis of the longitudinal data, the study finds that employed women in their fifties who start providing care for <10 hours a week are significantly more likely to remain in employment one wave later than similar women who have not started to provide care. In contrast, employed women in their fifties who start providing care for 10 or more hours a week are significantly less likely to remain in employment one wave later than similar women who have not started to provide care. Employed men aged between 50 and State Pension Age, who provide care for 10 or more hours a week at the beginning of the period have a significantly reduced employment rate one wave later than those who do not provide care. The study therefore suggests that carers' employment may be negatively affected when care is provided at a lower intensity than is generally estimated in England. This has important implications for local authorities, who have a duty to provide services to carers whose employment is at risk.

The research reported here is concerned with the future of informal care over the next thirty years and the effect of changes in informal care on demand for formal services. The research draws on a PSSRU computer simulation model which has produced projections to  for long-term care for England. The latest Government Actuary's Department (GAD) -based marital status projections are used here. These projections yield unexpected results in that they indicate that more elderly people are likely to receive informal care than previously projected. The underlying reason is that the GAD figures project a fall in the number of widows and rise in the number of elderly women with partners. What this implies is that ' spouse carers ' are likely to become increasingly important. This raises issues about the need for support by carers since spouse carers tend to be themselves elderly and are often in poor health. The article explores a number of ' scenarios ' around informal care, including scenarios in which the supply of informal care is severely restricted and a scenario in which more support is given to carers by developing ' carer-blind ' services. This last scenario has had particular relevance for the Royal Commission on Long Term Care.KEY WORDS -informal care, family care, older people, long-term care, England.

This paper reports findings from a European Commission funded study of future long-term care expenditure in Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, and presents projections of future long-term care expenditure in the four countries under a number of assumptions about the future. Macro-simulation (or cell-based) models were used to make comparable projections based on a set of common assumptions. A central base-case served as a point of comparison by which to explore the sensitivity of the models to alternative scenarios for the key determinants. The sensitivity of the models to variant assumptions about the future numbers of older people, the prevalence of functional dependency and informal care, patterns of long-term provision, and macroeconomic conditions are examined. It was found that, under the base-case, the proportion of gross domestic product spent on long-term care is projected to more than double between 2000 and 2050 in each country. The projected future demand for longterm care services for older people is sensitive to assumptions about the future number of older people, the prevalence of dependency and the availability of informal care, and projected expenditure is sensitive to assumptions about rises in the real unit-costs of services and the structure of the models. It is important, for planning purposes, to recognise the considerable uncertainty about future levels of long-term care expenditure.KEY WORDS -Long-term care expenditure, demand for long-term care, projections.