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China's Family Planning Policies and Their Labor Market ConsequencesIZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author. . This paper systematically examines the labor market consequences of China's family planning policies. First, we briefly review the major historical evolution of China's family planning policies. Second, we investigate the effects of these policies on the labor market, focusing on the size and quality of the workingage population and its age and gender composition and paying special attention to regional as well as rural-urban differences in the demographic structure resulting from the interaction of the family planning policies and internal migration. Last, we discuss undergoing and prospective policy changes and potential consequences. Though urban areas and coastal provinces have implemented stricter family planning policies, our analysis shows that because of internal migration, the aging problem is more severe in rural areas and in inland provinces. Our simulation results further indicate that the new two-child policy may be too late and too little to alleviate the aging problem in China.JEL Classification: J13, J11, J21, J61
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