Peningkatan suhu udara akibat perubahan iklim dan pemanasan global telah menjadi perhatian utama bagi pembuat kebijakan, salah satunya adalah pemerintah Kalimantan Timur. Konsumsi energi listrik memiliki hubungan erat dengan perkembangan ekonomi di Kalimantan Timur. Sehingga diperlukan peramalan terhadap suhu udara guna memprediksi konsumsi energi listrik di masa mendatang. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui peramalan suhu udara di Kalimantan Timur, yaitu kota Balikpapan, Samarinda dan Berau. Serta mengetahui hubungan antara suhu udara dan konsumsi energi listrik di Kalimantan Timur. Dalam penelitian ini, metode yang digunakan ialah metode ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) dan Regresi Linear. Hasil analisis diperoleh model terbaik untuk kota Balikpapan, Samarinda dan Berau secara berturut-turut, yaitu ARIMA(1,0,1), ARIMA(1,0,0) dan ARIMA(2,0,0). Sedangkan untuk Regresi Linear diperoleh nilai R-Square sebesar 39%. Dari hasil uji t dan uji F, diketahui bahwa suhu udara berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kenaikan konsumsi energi listrik di Kalimantan Timur. Kata Kunci: ARIMA, Listrik, Pemanasan Global, Peramalan, Suhu Udara

The increase in household electrical energy causes shrinkage of energy so that efforts are needed to conserve energy, especially electrical energy. One attempt to reducing the scarcity of electrical energy is by changing behavior. Changes in the behavior of electricity consumption can be influenced by psychological factors (norms, awareness, etc.), demographic factors (age, gender, income, etc.), and other factors such as regulations or policies from the government to conserve energy. This study seeks to determine the effect of psychological and regulatory factors on the behavior of household electricity consumption based on age. The method used was to conduct a survey by distributing questionnaires, the respondents obtained were 808 respondents. The results of the questionnaire were processed using the Structural Equation Model Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS) using the Smart-PLS software. The results of this study indicate that psychological and regulatory factors can explain their effect on the behavior of electrical energy consumption for ages <30 years of 50.9%. For 30-50 years old it is 49.5% while those> 50 years old are 59.3% and the rest is explained by other factors / variables outside those that have been studied so that it can be concluded that psychological factors and regulatory factors have a significant and significant influence. positive behavior towards household electrical energy consumption at all ages. it is expected that the results of this study can become the basis for making stronger regulations or policies in the field of energy conservation.