The study used the accounting data collected on 22 individual farms which at the  same time cultivated winter wheat and winter rape in 2011 and 2013. The aim of the study was to determine the impact on the income from the cultivation of wheat and rape, predicted in prospect of 2020, taking into account the rate of change in yield and prices of wheat and rape and prices of means of agricultural production. Moreover, an attempt was made to determine the strength of influence of fluctuations in crop and sale price on deviations of income from the  projection for 2020. The  calculations showed that, compared to the average of the studied years, in 2020 income from the cultivation of wheat will increase by 23.4%, and that of rape by 58.4%. However, increase in costs of cultivating wheat, faster than increase in outputs, will affect the profitability of production – by 2.0 percentage points, while for rape profitability it will increase by 7.7 pp. After taking into account the variability of the yield, income from cultivating wheat may vary by ±22.5%, and in the case of rape by as much as ±41.5%. Wheat and rape show much greater sensitivity to the variability of the sale price, and, as a result, income may vary by ±72.5 and ±69.2%, respectively. The study contributes to the development of research meth­ods and can be used by farmers and decision-making centres.

Main aim of this paper was to demonstrate the impact of cultivation intensity on economic of selected activities of crop production in Poland. The projection of income of these activities in mid-term perspective, i.e. in 2016, has also been developed. Studies have shown that for cultivation technology of low intensity, as compared to high, the economic results of examined activities were more favourable. The profitability of production, expressed as a ratio of the value of production to economic costs, was higher by 10.0 to 52.7%. According to the projection results, in the highly intensive cultivation, high costs and dynamics of growth, stronger than growth of income, had a negative impact on the level of income. It is expected, even with an exceptionally high yield, income level will be lower than in the cultivation of low intensity. The results show that the use of technological progress can reduce a negative impact of chemicals on the environment while maintaining the high economic efficiency of production.

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